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Bond risk premia and the exchange rate

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  • Boris Hofmann
  • Ilhyock Shim
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

In emerging market economies, currency appreciation goes hand in hand with compressed sovereign bond spreads, even for local currency sovereign bonds. This yield compression comes from a reduction in the credit risk premium. Crucially, the relevant exchange rate involved in yield compression is the bilateral US dollar exchange rate, not the trade-weighted exchange rate. Our findings highlight endogenous co-movement of bond risk premia and exchange rates through the portfolio choice of global investors who evaluate returns in dollar terms.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "Bond risk premia and the exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 775, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:775
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bond spread; capital flow; credit risk; emerging market; exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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