IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bof/bofitp/2020_006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Corporate investment and the exchange rate : The financial channel

Author

Listed:
  • Banerjee, Ryan
  • Hofmann, Boris
  • Mehrotra, Aaron

Abstract

Using firm-level data for 18 major global economies, we find that the exchange rate affects corporate investment through a financial channel: exchange rate depreciation dampens corporate investment through firm leverage and FX debt. These findings are consistent with the predictions of a stylised model of credit risk in which exchange rates can affect investment through FX debt or borrowing in local currency from foreign lenders. Empirically, the channel is more pronounced in emerging market economies (EMEs), reflecting their greater dependence on foreign funding and their less developed financial systems. Moreover, we find that exchange rate depreciation induces highly leveraged firms to increase their cash holdings, supporting from a different angle the notion of a financial channel of the exchange rate. Overall, these findings suggest that the large depreciation of EME currencies since 2011 was probably a significant amplifying factor in the recent investment slowdown in these economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Banerjee, Ryan & Hofmann, Boris & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2020. "Corporate investment and the exchange rate : The financial channel," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2020, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofitp:2020_006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/123456789/16964/1/dp0620.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mary Amiti & Oleg Itskhoki & Jozef Konings, 2014. "Importers, Exporters, and Exchange Rate Disconnect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 1942-1978, July.
    2. Fritz Foley, C. & Hartzell, Jay C. & Titman, Sheridan & Twite, Garry, 2007. "Why do firms hold so much cash? A tax-based explanation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 579-607, December.
    3. Ahnert, Toni & Forbes, Kristin & Friedrich, Christian & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2021. "Macroprudential FX regulations: Shifting the snowbanks of FX vulnerability?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 145-174.
    4. Huang, Yi & Panizza, Ugo & Portes, Richard, 2018. "Corporate foreign bond issuance and interfirm loans in China," CEPR Discussion Papers 12865, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Banerjee, Ryan & Hofmann, Boris & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2020. "Corporate investment and the exchange rate : The financial channel," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2020, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    6. Gilchrist, Simon & Himmelberg, Charles P., 1995. "Evidence on the role of cash flow for investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 541-572, December.
    7. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2017. "Global Dollar Credit and Carry Trades: A Firm-Level Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(3), pages 703-749.
    8. Lewis Alexander & Janice Eberly, 2018. "Investment Hollowing Out," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(1), pages 5-30, March.
    9. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    10. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Xiaoxi Liu & Ilhyock Shim, 2018. "Exchange rate appreciations and corporate risk taking," BIS Working Papers 710, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(2), pages 535-564.
    12. Myers, Stewart C, 1984. "The Capital Structure Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 575-592, July.
    13. Mr. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Thorsten Beck & Meghana Ayyagari, 2018. "The Micro Impact of Macroprudential Policies: Firm-Level Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2018/267, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2008. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 612-626, November.
    15. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance and Investment," NBER Working Papers 25366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Jonathan Kearns & Nikhil Patel, 2016. "Does the financial channel of exchange rates offset the trade channel?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    17. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    18. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Jonathan Kearns & Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2015. "(Why) Is investment weak?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    19. Thomas W. Bates & Kathleen M. Kahle & René M. Stulz, 2009. "Why Do U.S. Firms Hold So Much More Cash than They Used To?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 1985-2021, October.
    20. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2012. "Treating Measurement Error in Tobin's q," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1286-1329.
    21. Laurent Frésard & Philip Valta, 2016. "How Does Corporate Investment Respond to Increased Entry Threat?," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1-35.
    22. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2007. "Investment and the Cost of Capital: New Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 13174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Stefan Avdjiev & Valentina Bruno & Catherine Koch & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Investment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 151-173, March.
    24. Boris Hofmann & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "FX intervention and domestic credit: Evidence from high-frequency micro data," BIS Working Papers 774, Bank for International Settlements.
    25. Stewart C. Myers, 1984. "Capital Structure Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 1393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Thomas Philippon, 2009. "The Bond Market's q," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(3), pages 1011-1056.
    27. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & Mai Chi Dao, 2017. "Corporate Investment and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 2017/183, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Morris Goldstein & Philip Turner, 2004. "Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 373, January.
    29. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "Dollar exchange rate as a credit supply factor - evidence from firm-level exports," BIS Working Papers 819, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Juan M. Sanchez & Emircan Yurdagul, 2013. "Why are corporations holding so much cash?," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan.
    31. Christian Upper & Marcos Valli, 2016. "Emerging derivatives markets?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    32. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Herman Kamil & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2016. "What Hinders Investment in the Aftermath of Financial Crises: Insolvent Firms or Illiquid Banks?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 756-769, October.
    33. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    34. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    35. Gebauer, Stefan & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas, 2018. "Corporate debt and investment: A firm-level analysis for stressed euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 112-130.
    36. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello, 2007. "Financial Constraints, Asset Tangibility, and Corporate Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1429-1460, 2007 12.
    37. Gilchrist, Simon & Himmelberg, Charles P. & Huberman, Gur, 2005. "Do stock price bubbles influence corporate investment?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 805-827, May.
    38. Mr. Sebastian Sosa & Mr. Nicolas E Magud, 2015. "Investment in Emerging Markets We Are Not in Kansas Anymore…Or Are We?," IMF Working Papers 2015/077, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Gebauer, Stefan & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas, 2017. "Corporate debt and investment: a firm analysis for stressed euro area countries," Working Paper Series 2101, European Central Bank.
    40. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    41. Myers, Stewart C., 1984. "Capital structure puzzle," Working papers 1548-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    42. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    43. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Michael S. Weisbach, 2004. "The Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1777-1804, August.
    44. Michael Chui & Ingo Fender & Vladyslav Sushko, 2014. "Risks related to EME corporate balance sheets: the role of leverage and currency mismatch," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aaron Mehrotra & Jochen Schanz, 2020. "Financial market development and monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market development, monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies, volume 113, pages 1-18, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Boris Hofmann & Aaron Mehrotra, 2020. "Corporate investment and the exchange rate: The financial channel," BIS Working Papers 839, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Shesadri Banerjee & M S Mohanty, 2021. "US monetary policy and the financial channel of the exchange rate: evidence from India," BIS Working Papers 945, Bank for International Settlements.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shesadri Banerjee & M S Mohanty, 2021. "US monetary policy and the financial channel of the exchange rate: evidence from India," BIS Working Papers 945, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2013. "The Effects of Future Capital Investment and R&D Expenditures on Firms' Liquidity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 459-474, August.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, december.
    4. Faff, Robert & Kwok, Wing Chun & Podolski, Edward J. & Wong, George, 2016. "Do corporate policies follow a life-cycle?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 95-107.
    5. Stein, Jeremy C., 2003. "Agency, information and corporate investment," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 111-165, Elsevier.
    6. Ahnert, Toni & Forbes, Kristin & Friedrich, Christian & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2021. "Macroprudential FX regulations: Shifting the snowbanks of FX vulnerability?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 145-174.
    7. Cristina Martínez-Sola & Pedro J. García-Teruel & Pedro Martínez-Solano, 2018. "Cash holdings in SMEs: speed of adjustment, growth and financing," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 823-842, December.
    8. Bigelli, Marco & Martín-Ugedo, Juan Francisco & Sánchez-Vidal, F. Javier, 2014. "Financial conservatism of private firms," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(11), pages 2419-2427.
    9. Davide Dottori & Giacinto Micucci, 2018. "Corporate liquidity in Italy and its increase in the long recession," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(3), pages 981-1014, December.
    10. Yang, Junhong & Guariglia, Alessandra & Guo, Jie (Michael), 2019. "To what extent does corporate liquidity affect M&A decisions, method of payment and performance? Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 128-152.
    11. Akbar, Saeed & Rehman, Shafiq ur & Ormrod, Phillip, 2013. "The impact of recent financial shocks on the financing and investment policies of UK private firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 59-70.
    12. Sasaki, Toshinori & Suzuki, Katsushi, 2019. "Bank health and cash holdings: Evidence from a bank-centered financial market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    13. Fabio Schiantarelli & Alessandro Sembenelli, 2000. "Form of Ownership and Financial Constraints:Panel Data Evidence From Flow of Funds and Investment Equations," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(2), pages 175-192, June.
    14. Fernández de Guevara, Juan & Maudos, Joaquín & Salvador, Carlos, 2021. "Effects of the degree of financial constraint and excessive indebtedness on firms’ investment decisions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    15. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2014. "The forward looking information content of equity and bond markets for aggregate investments," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-24.
    16. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Xiaoxi Liu & Ilhyock Shim, 2021. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Firm Leverage," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 90-121, March.
    17. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock, 2007. "Foreign participation in local currency bond markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(3), pages 291-304.
    18. Machokoto, Michael & Areneke, Geofry, 2020. "Does innovation and financial constraints affect the propensity to save in emerging markets?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    19. Monda, Barbara & Giorgino, Marco & Modolin, Ileana, 2013. "Rationales for Corporate Risk Management - A Critical Literature Review," MPRA Paper 45420, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Govori, Fadil, 2014. "The development of capital market and its impact on providing alternative sources of business financing: Empirical analysis," MPRA Paper 58189, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bof:bofitp:2020_006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofitfi.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Minna Nyman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofitfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.