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External debt composition and domestic credit cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Avdjiev

    (BIS)

  • Stephan Binder

    (BIS)

  • Ricardo Sousa

    (ESM)

Abstract

We assess the role of external debt in shaping the dynamics of domestic credit cycles. Using quarterly data for 40 countries between 1980 and 2015, we examine four dimensions of external debt composition: instrument, sector, currency and maturity. We show that the first two dimensions provide valuable information about the likelihood of credit booms and busts. In particular, we find that a higher share of external bank lending in the form of bonds is associated with a greater likelihood of credit booms. Our results also reveal that credit busts tend to be associated with a lower share of interbank lending and a higher share of lending from banks to non-banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Avdjiev & Stephan Binder & Ricardo Sousa, 2018. "External debt composition and domestic credit cycles," Working Papers 28, European Stability Mechanism.
    • Handle: RePEc:stm:wpaper:28
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2017. "Synchronicity of real and financial cycles and structural characteristics in EU countries," CEIS Research Paper 414, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 25 Sep 2017.
    2. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2021. "What drives the duration of credit booms?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1531-1549, January.
    3. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2021. "Why are credit booms sometimes sweet and sometimes sour?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 3054-3074, April.
    4. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2023. "A quest between fiscal and market discipline," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Daniel Carvalho, 2021. "Revisiting the relationship between cross‐border capital flows and credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 179-218, August.
    6. Demir, Müge & Önder, Zeynep, 2019. "Financial connectivity and excessive liquidity: Benefit or risk?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 203-221.
    7. Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2021. "Interlinkages between external debt financing, credit cycles and output fluctuations in emerging market economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 965-1001, November.
    8. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2020. "Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy prices: On the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycle phases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Hodula, Martin & Libich, Jan, 2023. "Has monetary policy fueled the rise in shadow banking?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    10. Wang, Ruohan & Wang, Xinya & Xue, Yi, 2024. "Low- and middle-income countries’ external debt cycle and global economic prospect," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    11. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2020. "The Housing Cycle: What Role for Mortgage Market Development and Housing Finance?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 607-670, November.
    12. Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2020. "Riding the Wave of Credit: Are Longer Expansions Really a Bad Omen?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 729-751, September.
    13. John K Njenga, 2024. "Domestic Credit Growth Analysis using ARIMA Technique: A Case Study of Kenya," Post-Print hal-04542996, HAL.
    14. Vítor Castro & Pedro A. Cerqueira & Rodrigo Martins, 2024. "Is There a Pervasive World Real Credit Cycle?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 99-119, February.
    15. Ashima Goyal & Rajeswari Sengupta & Akhilesh Verma, 2019. "External debt financing and macroeconomic instability in emerging market economies," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-013, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    16. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2020. "New synchronicity indices between real and financial cycles: Is there any link to structural characteristics and recessions in European Union countries?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 617-641, October.
    17. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.
    18. Ni, Niannian & Liu, Yulin & Zhou, Hui, 2022. "Financial openness, capital rents and income inequality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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