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Trilemma, not dilemma: financial globalisation and Monetary policy effectiveness

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  • Georgios Georgiadis
  • Arnaud Mehl

Abstract

We investigate whether the classic Mundell-Flemming \"trilemma\" has morphed into a \"dilemma\" due to financial globalisation. According to the dilemma hypothesis, global financial cycles determine domestic financial conditions regardless of an economy's exchange rate regime and monetary policy autonomy is possible only if capital mobility is restricted. We find that global financial cycles indeed reduce domestic monetary policy effectiveness in more financially integrated economies. However, we also find that another salient feature of financial globalisation has the opposite effect and amplifies monetary policy effectiveness. Economies increasingly net long in foreign currency experience larger valuation effects on their external balance sheets in response to exchange rate movements triggered by monetary policy impluses. Overall, we find that the net effect of financial globalisation since the 1990s has been to amplify monetary policy effectiveness in the typical advanced and emerging market economy. Specifically, our results suggest that the output effect of a tightening in monetary policy has been stronger by 40% due to financial globalisation. Insofar as valuation effects can only play out if an economy's exchange rate is flexible, the choice of the exchange rate regime remains critical for monetary policy autonomy under capital mobility and in the presence of global financial cycles. Thus, our results suggest that the classic trilemma remains valid.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgios Georgiadis & Arnaud Mehl, 2015. "Trilemma, not dilemma: financial globalisation and Monetary policy effectiveness," Globalization Institute Working Papers 222, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:222
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp222
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    2. Georgiadis, Georgios & Zhu, Feng, 2021. "Foreign-currency exposures and the financial channel of exchange rates: Eroding monetary policy autonomy in small open economies?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Michael B. Devereux & Changhua Yu, 2018. "Monetary Policy Responses to External Spillovers in Emerging Market Economies," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Enrique G. Mendoza & Ernesto Pastén & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects and Policy Measures, edition 1, volume 25, chapter 6, pages 183-223, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Samuel Howorth & Domenico Lombardi & Pierre L. Siklos, 2019. "Together or Apart? Monetary Policy Divergences in the G4," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 191-217, April.
    5. Banerjee, Ryan & Devereux, Michael B. & Lombardo, Giovanni, 2016. "Self-oriented monetary policy, global financial markets and excess volatility of international capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 275-297.
    6. Han, Xuehui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2018. "International transmissions of monetary shocks: Between a trilemma and a dilemma," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 205-219.
    7. Han, Xuehui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2016. "International Transmissions of Monetary Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 11070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan, 2016. "Transmission of global financial shocks to EMU member states: The role of monetary policy and national factors," Discussion Papers 23/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Maurice Obstfeld & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2019. "A Tie That Binds: Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 279-293, May.
    10. Pablo Anaya & Stefan Hasenclever, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Exchange Rate Movements," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 121, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Josip Tica & Tomislav Globan & Vladimir Arčabić, 2016. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness, Net Foreign Currency Exposure and Financial Globalisation," EFZG Working Papers Series 1603, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    12. Michael B. Devereux & Changhua Yu, 2017. "Exchange Rate Adjustment in Financial Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(3), pages 528-562, August.
    13. Hans Genberg, 2017. "Financial Integration in Asia," Working Papers wp22, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    14. Shang-Jin Wei, 2018. "Managing Financial Globalization: Insights from the Recent Literature," NBER Working Papers 24330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Andrej Sokol & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2017. "The International Credit Channel of U.S. Monetary Policy and Financial Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 724, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Wei, Shang-Jin, 2018. "Managing Financial Globalization: A Guide for Developing Countries Based on the Recent Literature," ADBI Working Papers 804, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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