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Global Banking Glut and Loan Risk Premium

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  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

European global banks intermediating U.S. dollar funds are important in influencing credit conditions in the United States. U.S. dollar-denominated assets of banks outside the United States are comparable in size to the total assets of the U.S. commercial bank sector, but the large gross cross-border positions are masked by the netting out of the gross assets and liabilities. As a consequence, current account imbalances do not reflect the influence of gross capital flows on U.S. financial conditions. This paper pieces together evidence from a global flow of funds analysis, and develops a theoretical model linking global banks and U.S. loan risk premiums. The culprit for the easy credit conditions in the United States up to 2007 may have been the “Global Banking Glut” rather than the “Global Savings Glut.”

Suggested Citation

  • Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Global Banking Glut and Loan Risk Premium," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(2), pages 155-192, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:60:y:2012:i:2:p:155-192
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    4. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoit Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area: Does the Interest Rate Channel Explain it All?," NBER Working Papers 9984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Legal structure, financial structure, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 9-28.
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