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Monetary Policy Effectiveness, Net Foreign Currency Exposure and Financial Globalisation

Author

Listed:
  • Josip Tica

    () (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)

  • Tomislav Globan

    () (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)

  • Vladimir Arčabić

    () (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)

Abstract

In this paper we use an innovative methodological approach to investigate how the classic Mundell-Flemming trilemma monetary policy mix is affected by global financial integration ("dilemma" hypothesis), accumulation of international reserves ("quadrilemma" hypothesis) and foreign exchange rate exposure of developing, emerging and transition countries. In order to compare competing policy mix hypotheses within the single methodological framework we use two threshold variables simultaneously in a dynamic panel threshold model. Thresholds values are endogenously estimated using a grid search. Exchange rate stability index is used as a primary threshold variable and international reserves, financial openness and foreign currency exposure are rotated as secondary threshold variables. Results imply that there are significant differences between fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes even at the high levels of financial integration and that transmission of international business cycle might be a consequence of an exchange rate regime choice (due to foreign currency exposure) of developing and emerging countries and not a consequence of inability to implement counter-cyclical monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Josip Tica & Tomislav Globan & Vladimir Arčabić, 2016. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness, Net Foreign Currency Exposure and Financial Globalisation," EFZG Working Papers Series 1603, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
  • Handle: RePEc:zag:wpaper:1603
    as

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    File URL: http://web.efzg.hr/repec/pdf/Clanak%2016-03.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," NBER Working Papers 14533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    3. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Turnovsky,Stephen J., 2011. "Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth in a Small Open Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521187527.
    5. Nuxoll, Daniel A, 1994. "Differences in Relative Prices and International Differences in Growth Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1423-1436, December.
    6. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    7. Simone Meier, 2013. "Financial Globalization and Monetary Transmission," Working Papers 2013-03, Swiss National Bank.
    8. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 191-219, June.
    9. Georgiadis, Georgios & Mehl, Arnaud, 2015. "Trilemma, not dilemma: financial globalisation and Monetary policy effectiveness," Globalization Institute Working Papers 222, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    10. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2016. "Monetary policy spillovers and the trilemma in the new normal: Periphery country sensitivity to core country conditions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 298-330.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mundell-Fleming; Dillemma vs. trilemma; Foreign currency exposure; Qaudrilemma; Panel threshold model;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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