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Banking globalization, transmission, and monetary policy autonomy

  • Linda S. Goldberg

International financial linkages, particularly through global bank flows, generate important questions about the consequences for economic and financial stability, including the ability of countries to conduct autonomous monetary policy. I address the monetary autonomy issue in the context of the international policy trilemma: Countries seek three typically desirable but jointly unattainable objectives—stable exchange rates, free international capital mobility, and monetary policy autonomy oriented toward, and effective at, achieving domestic goals. I argue that global banking entails some features that are distinct from the broad issues of capital market openness captured in existing studies. In principle, if global banks with affiliates in foreign markets can reduce frictions in international capital flows, then the macroeconomic policy trilemma could bind tighter and interest rates will exhibit more co-movement across countries. However, if the information content and stickiness of the claims and services provided are enhanced relative to a benchmark alternative, then global banks can weaken the trilemma rather than enhance it. The result is a prediction of heterogeneous effects on monetary autonomy, tied to the business models of the global banks and whether countries are investment or funding locations for those banks. Empirical tests of the trilemma support this view that global bank effects are heterogeneous and that the primary drivers of monetary autonomy are exchange rate regimes.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 640.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:640
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  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S. Goldberg, 2012. "Follow the Money: Quantifying Domestic Effects of Foreign Bank Shocks in the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 17873, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Simone Meier, 2013. "Financial globalization and monetary transmission," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 145, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  9. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S. Goldberg, 2010. "Global Banks and International Shock Transmission: Evidence from the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15974, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Friederike Niepmann, 2013. "Banking across Borders," CESifo Working Paper Series 4120, CESifo Group Munich.
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  12. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 2011. "Evolving Perceptions of Central Bank Credibility: The European Central Bank Experience," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 153 - 182.
  13. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S. Goldberg, 2011. "Liquidity management of U.S. global banks: Internal capital markets in the great recession," NBER Working Papers 17355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Fabio Canova, 2003. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Economics Working Papers 925, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2004.
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  28. Eric S. Rosengren & Joe Peek, 2000. "Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Activity in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 30-45, March.
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