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Government Bonds in Domestic and Foreign Currency: the Role of Institutional and Macroeconomic Factors

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  • Stijn Claessens
  • Daniela Klingebiel
  • Sergio L. Schmukler

Abstract

In contrast to some recent research, this paper finds that institutional and macroeconomic factors are related to the depth and currency composition of government bond markets. Using panel data for developed and emerging economies, we find several factors to be systematically associated with bond markets. Aside from economic size (already shown to affect the currency composition), this paper shows that investor bases matter. Economies with deeper domestic financial systems (measured by bank deposits and stock market capitalization) have larger domestic currency bond markets and issue less foreign currency debt, whereas foreign investor demand is positively related to the size and share of foreign currency bonds. Moreover, less flexible exchange rate regimes are associated with more foreign currency issuance. Other relevant variables include inflation, fiscal burden, legal origin, and capital account openness. Copyright © 2007 The Authors; Journal compilation © 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Stijn Claessens & Daniela Klingebiel & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2007. "Government Bonds in Domestic and Foreign Currency: the Role of Institutional and Macroeconomic Factors," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 370-413, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:15:y:2007:i:2:p:370-413
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Agnello, Luca & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "Can re-regulation of the financial sector strike back public debt?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 159-171.
    2. Dennis Essers & Hans J. Blommestein & Danny Cassimon & Perla Ibarlucea Flores, 2016. "Local Currency Bond Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Stock-Taking Exercise and Analysis of Key Drivers," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 1167-1194, May.
    3. Miyajima, Ken & Mohanty, M.S. & Chan, Tracy, 2015. "Emerging market local currency bonds: Diversification and stability," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 126-139.
    4. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2017. "Currency Matters: Analyzing International Bond Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 23175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers & Karel Verbeke, 2016. "The changing face of Rwanda's public debt," BeFinD Working Papers 0114, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    6. Essers, Dennis & Cassimon, Danny, 2012. "Washing away original sin: vulnerability to crisis and the role of local currency bonds in Sub-Saharan Africa," IOB Working Papers 2012.12, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy (IOB).
    7. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2015. "Bond vigilantes and inflation," Working Paper Series 2015-9, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Serkan Arslanalp & Tigran Poghosyan, 2016. "Foreign Investor Flows and Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(6), pages 45-67, June.
    9. Martin Melecky, 2012. "Choosing The Currency Structure Of Foreign‐Currency Debt: A Review Of Policy Approaches," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 133-151, March.
    10. Axel Lindner & Alexander Ludwig, 2009. "A simple macro model of Original Sin based on optimal price setting under incomplete information," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 345-359, December.
    11. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2016. "Do local bond markets help fight inflation?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. Ulrich Volz & Dafe Florence & Dennis Essers, 2017. "Localising Sovereign Debt: The Rise of Local Currency Bond Markets in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 202, Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London, UK.
    13. Bengui, Julien & Nguyen, Ha, 2016. "Consumption baskets and currency choice in international borrowing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 287-304.
    14. Hale, Galina & Kapan, Tumer & Minoiu, Camelia, 2016. "Shock Transmission through Cross-Border Bank Lending: Credit and Real Effect," Working Paper Series 2016-1, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Kathrin Berensmann & Florence Dafe & Ulrich Volz, 2015. "Developing local currency bond markets for long-term development financing in Sub-Saharan Africa," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(3-4), pages 350-378.
    16. Fauver, Larry & McDonald, Michael B., 2015. "Culture, agency costs, and governance: International evidence on capital structure," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-23.
    17. Diego Alejandro Martínez Cruz & José Fernando Moreno Gutiérrez & Juan Sebastián Rojas Moreno, 2015. "Evolución de la relación entre bonos locales y externos del gobierno colombiano frente a choques de riesgo," Borradores de Economia 919, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Warnock, Veronica Cacdac & Warnock, Francis E., 2008. "Markets and housing finance," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 239-251, September.
    19. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2015. "Domestic bond markets and inflation," Working Paper Series 2015-5, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    20. Laurissa Mühlich, 2011. "South–South Regional Monetary Cooperation: Potential Gains for Developing Countries and Emerging Markets," Chapters,in: Regional Integration, Economic Development and Global Governance, chapter 13 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. repec:eee:ememar:v:32:y:2017:i:c:p:148-167 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Paul Mizen & Frank Packer & Eli Remolona & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2018. "Original sin in corporate finance: New evidence from Asian bond issuers in onshore and offshore markets," Discussion Papers 2018/04, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    23. Esteban Vesperoni & Walter Orellana R., 2008. "Dollarization and Maturity Structure of Public Securities; The Experience of Bolivia," IMF Working Papers 08/157, International Monetary Fund.

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