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Quantifying the Effects of the CNB's Exchange Rate Commitment: A Synthetic Control Method Approach

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  • Matej Opatrny

    () (Institute of Economics Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague)

Abstract

In this paper I evaluate the quantitative effects of the Czech National Bank’s commitment to keep the Koruna from appreciating that were put in place in 2013. I focus on the policy’s impact on output, unemployment, and inflation. I use the synthetic control method, which allows me to compute the counter-factual development of the Czech economy in the absence of the commitment. I find that the commitment helped decrease unemployment substantially. The effect on overall output is also strongly positive, almost 2 percentage points for growth in 2015, but only marginally statistically significant, which might be connected to disturbances created by changes in excise taxes. The effect of the commitment on inflation is positive but not statistically significant at standard levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Matej Opatrny, 2017. "Quantifying the Effects of the CNB's Exchange Rate Commitment: A Synthetic Control Method Approach," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(6), pages 539-577, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:67:y:2017:i:6:p:539-577
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gomis Porqueras, Pedro & Puzzello, Laura, 2015. "Winners and losers from the Euro," Working Papers eco_2015_2, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    2. Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 983-1001, July.
    3. Eduardo Cavallo & Sebastian Galiani & Ilan Noy & Juan Pantano, 2013. "Catastrophic Natural Disasters and Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1549-1561, December.
    4. Jinjarak, Yothin & Noy, Ilan & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2013. "Capital controls in Brazil – Stemming a tide with a signal?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2938-2952.
    5. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Kermani, Amir & Kwak, James & Mitton, Todd, 2016. "The value of connections in turbulent times: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 368-391.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomas Havranek & Mojmir Hampl, 2017. "Should Inflation Measures Used by Central Banks Incorporate House Prices? The Czech National Bank's Approach," Research and Policy Notes 2017/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    2. Mojmir Hampl & Tomas Havranek, 2017. "Should Inflation Measures Used by Central Banks Incorporate House Prices? The Czech Approach," Working Papers IES 2017/12, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2017.
    3. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2017. "An Exchange Rate Floor as an Instrument of Monetary Policy: An Ex-post Assessment of the Czech Experience," Working Papers 2017/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    4. Katerina Arnostova & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kr, 2016. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2016," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as16 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; unemployment; output; monetary policy; synthetic control method;

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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