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The Impact of the Brexit Vote on UK Financial Markets: A Synthetic Control Method Approach

Author

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  • Matej Opatrny

    (aInstitute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University,nOpletalova 26, 110 00, Prague, Czech Republic)

Abstract

We estimate how the UK _nancial markets would have evolved if the Remain camp had won the referendum. To construct thecounterfactual, we use the synthetic control method. Our results suggest that there would not have been any significant change in the development of the FTSE 100 Index in the medium to long term if there had not been a referendum. On the other hand, we find a significantly negative effect of 1.2 percentage points on the 10-year bond yield. Given the geopolitical circumstances in mid 2016, financial agents investing in the pound could have sought safer investment options represented by longer-term government bonds, which consequently could result in lower bond yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Matej Opatrny, 2019. "The Impact of the Brexit Vote on UK Financial Markets: A Synthetic Control Method Approach," Working Papers IES 2019/27, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2019.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2019_27
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; financial markets; macroeconomic indicators; synthetic control method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy

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