Populist constitutional backsliding and judicial independence: Evidence from Türkiye

This paper examines the long-term institutional consequences of populist constitutional reform, focusing on effective judicial independence in Türkiye. Using the synthetic control method, we estimate the causal effect of the 2010 constitutional referendum, which restructured the judiciary under the rhetoric of modernization, on judicial independence. Türkiye is compared to a carefully selected donor pool of Mediterranean countries with similar institutional trajectories but no comparable judicial intervention during 1987–2023. The results reveal a sharp and sustained decline in judicial independence following the 2010 reforms, predating and paving the way for the more overt constitutional centralization of 2017. These findings contribute to the literature on populism, comparative institutional development, and empirical law and economics, and highlight the role of disguised legal reform in undermining judicial checks on executive power.