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Labour market modelling in the light of the financial crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Lafourcade, Pierre
  • Gerali, Andrea
  • Brůha, Jan
  • Bursian, Dirk
  • Buss, Ginters
  • Corbo, Vesna
  • Haavio, Markus
  • Håkanson, Christina
  • Hlédik, Tibor
  • Kátay, Gábor
  • Kulikov, Dmitry
  • Lozej, Matija
  • Maria, José R.
  • Micallef, Brian
  • Papageorgiou, Dimitris
  • Vanhala, Juuso
  • Zeleznik, Marin

Abstract

This paper revisits the empirical relationship between unemployment and output, and its evolution following the financial crisis of 2008, with the aim of drawing potential consequences for labour market modelling strategies in place within the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). First, the negative correlation between output and unemployment (Okun’s law) at cyclical frequencies is found to be a robust feature of macro data across time, countries and identification schemes. Focusing on the euro area, the financial distress seems to have altered the dynamics of output and unemployment mainly at lower frequencies, interpreted as trend developments by the statistical filters used in the analysis. Looking at the implications for modelling strategies, we propose an extension of the standard labour search and matching model in which financial frictions impinge directly on the labour market rather than on the capital market, opening the way to protracted and lagged response of employment after a “financial” crisis. In terms of policy implications, the importance of the interplay between financial and labour market frictions in trend developments should be read as strong support for an ambitious structural reform agenda in Europe, so as to make our labour (and goods) markets more flexible and resilient. JEL Classification: E10, E32, J64

Suggested Citation

  • Lafourcade, Pierre & Gerali, Andrea & Brůha, Jan & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & Corbo, Vesna & Haavio, Markus & Håkanson, Christina & Hlédik, Tibor & Kátay, Gábor & Kulikov, Dmitry & Lozej, Matija , 2016. "Labour market modelling in the light of the financial crisis," Occasional Paper Series 175, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2016175
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op175.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Brian Micallef, 2017. "Empirical Estimates of Okun¡¯s Law in Malta," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 138-148, January.
    2. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as17 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Labor Markets over Business Cycles: An International Comparison," Working Papers 2015/15, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    4. Katerina Arnostova & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kr, 2016. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2016," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as16 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial crisis; labour market; macroeconomic models of the labour market; output; unemployment;

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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