Euro area labour markets: different reaction to shocks?
A small labour market model for the six largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium) is estimated in a state -space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: a trend labour force component, a trend labour productivity component, a long-run inflation rate and a trend hours worked component. The short run dynamics is governed by a VAR model including six shocks. The state-space framework is convenient for the decomposition of endogenous variables in trends and cycles, for shock decomposition, for incorporating external judgement, and for running conditional projections. The forecast performance of the model is rather satisfactory. The model is used to carry out a policy experiment with the objective of investigating whether euro area countries differ in the labour market adjustment to a reduction in labour costs. Results suggest that, following the 2008-09 recession, moderate wage growth would significantly help delivering a more job-intense recovery. JEL Classification: C51, C53, E17, J21
|Date of creation:||Jan 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany|
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marcello M. EstevÃ£o, 2005. "Product Market Regulation and the Benefits of Wage Moderation," IMF Working Papers 05/191, International Monetary Fund.
- Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991.
"Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market,"
Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, December.
- Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, December.
- Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, 2011.
"Multiple filtering devices for the estimation of cyclical DSGE models,"
Econometric Society, vol. 2(1), pages 73-98, 03.
- Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, 2010. "Multiple Filtering Devices for the Estimation of Cyclical DSGE Models," Working Papers 498, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, 2009. "Multiple filtering devices for the estimation of cyclical DSGE models," Economics Working Papers 1135, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2010.
- Mourre, Gilles, 2004.
"Did the pattern of aggregate employment growth change in the euro area in the late 1990s?,"
Working Paper Series
0358, European Central Bank.
- Gilles Mourre, 2006. "Did the pattern of aggregate employment growth change in the euro area in the late 1990s?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1783-1807.
- Gilles Mourre, 2006. "Did the pattern of aggregate employment growth change in the Euro area in the late 1990s?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/14299, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Chernozhukov, Victor & Hong, Han, 2003. "An MCMC approach to classical estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 293-346, August.
- Koopman, Siem Jan & Harvey, Andrew, 2003.
"Computing observation weights for signal extraction and filtering,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1317-1333, May.
- A. C. Harvey & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Computing Observation Weights for Signal Extraction and Filtering," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0888, Econometric Society.
- Julian Morgan & Annabelle Mourougane, 2005.
"What Can Changes In Structural Factors Tell Us About Unemployment In Europe?,"
Scottish Journal of Political Economy,
Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(1), pages 75-104, 02.
- Morgan, Julian & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2001. "What can changes in structural factors tell us about unemployment in Europe?," Working Paper Series 0081, European Central Bank.
- Pierluigi, Beatrice & Roma, Moreno, 2008. "Labour cost and employment across euro area countries and sectors," Working Paper Series 0912, European Central Bank.
- Anders Warne & Henrik Hansen, 2001. "The cause of Danish unemployment: Demand or supply shocks?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 461-486.
- Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111284. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.