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Euro area labour markets: different reaction to shocks?

  • Brůha, Jan
  • Pierluigi, Beatrice
  • Serafini, Roberta

A small labour market model for the six largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium) is estimated in a state -space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: a trend labour force component, a trend labour productivity component, a long-run inflation rate and a trend hours worked component. The short run dynamics is governed by a VAR model including six shocks. The state-space framework is convenient for the decomposition of endogenous variables in trends and cycles, for shock decomposition, for incorporating external judgement, and for running conditional projections. The forecast performance of the model is rather satisfactory. The model is used to carry out a policy experiment with the objective of investigating whether euro area countries differ in the labour market adjustment to a reduction in labour costs. Results suggest that, following the 2008-09 recession, moderate wage growth would significantly help delivering a more job-intense recovery. JEL Classification: C51, C53, E17, J21

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1284.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111284
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  1. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  2. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
  3. Julian Morgan & Annabelle Mourougane, 2005. "What Can Changes In Structural Factors Tell Us About Unemployment In Europe?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(1), pages 75-104, 02.
  4. Anders Warne & Henrik Hansen, 2001. "The cause of Danish unemployment: Demand or supply shocks?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 461-486.
  5. Gilles Mourre, 2006. "Did the pattern of aggregate employment growth change in the Euro area in the late 1990s?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/14299, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  6. Fabio Canova and Filippo Ferroni, 2010. "Multiple Filtering Devices for the Estimation of Cyclical DSGE Models," Working Papers 498, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  7. Pierluigi, Beatrice & Roma, Moreno, 2008. "Labour cost and employment across euro area countries and sectors," Working Paper Series 0912, European Central Bank.
  8. Chernozhukov, Victor & Hong, Han, 2003. "An MCMC approach to classical estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 293-346, August.
  9. Koopman, Siem Jan & Harvey, Andrew, 2003. "Computing observation weights for signal extraction and filtering," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1317-1333, May.
  10. Marcello M. Estevão, 2005. "Product Market Regulation and the Benefits of Wage Moderation," IMF Working Papers 05/191, International Monetary Fund.
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