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The dynamic effects of shocks to wages and prices in the United States and the euro area

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  • Marques, Carlos Robalo
  • Duarte, Rita

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamics of aggregate wages and prices in the United States (US) and the Euro Area (EA) with a special focus on persistence of real wages, wage and price inflation. The analysis is conducted within a structural vector error-correction model, where the structural shocks are identified using the long-run properties of the theoretical model, as well as the co-integrating properties of the estimated system. Overall, in the long run, wage and price inflation emerge as more persistent in the EA than in the US in the face of import price, unemployment, or permanent productivity shocks. This finding is robust to the changes in the sample period and in the models' specifications entertained in the paper. JEL Classification: C32, C51, E31, J30

Suggested Citation

  • Marques, Carlos Robalo & Duarte, Rita, 2009. "The dynamic effects of shocks to wages and prices in the United States and the euro area," Working Paper Series 1067, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091067
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area : a summary of the Inflation Persistence Network evidence," Working Paper Research 95, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
    3. Fernando Martins & M. Druant, 2009. "How are Firms’ Wages and Prices Linked: Survey Evidence in Europe," Working Papers w200918, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank & Altissimo, Filippo, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area: a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    5. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Beatrice Pierluigi & Jan Bruha & Roberta Serafini, 2014. "Euro area labour markets: Different reaction to shocks?," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 34-60.
    2. Hundsdoerfer, Jochen & Löwe, Maren, 2026. "How do value added taxes affect wages and labor?," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 311, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    3. Hundsdoerfer, Jochen & Löwe, Maren, 2026. "How do value added taxes affect wages and labor?," Discussion Papers 2026/1, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    4. Sunde, Tafirenyika & Akanbi, Olusegun Ayodele, . "The Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy on Real Variables in Namibia," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 4(01).
    5. Rita Duarte, 2009. "Wage and Price Dynamics in the United States and the Euro Area," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. repec:ptu:bdpart:b200910 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Davtyan, Karen, 2017. "The distributive effect of monetary policy: The top one percent makes the difference," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 106-118.
    8. Karen Davtyan, 2016. "“Income Inequality and Monetary Policy: An Analysis on the Long Run Relation”," AQR Working Papers 201604, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Apr 2016.
    9. Karen Davtyan, 2016. "“Income Inequality and Monetary Policy: An analysis on the Long Run Relation”," IREA Working Papers 201604, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Apr 2016.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

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