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Modelling shifts in the wage-price and unemployment-inflation relationships in Italy, Poland, and the UK

  • Massimiliano Marcellino
  • Grayham E. Mizon

The relationship between wages, prices, productivity, inflation, and unemployment in Italy, Poland, and the UK between the 1960’s and the early 1990’s is modelled as a cointegrated vector autoregression subject to regime shifts. For each of these economies there is clear evidence of a change in the underlying equilibria of this sector of the economy. Hypotheses concerning the similarity of the transition from a rigid to a flexible labour market are tested.

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Paper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 145.

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Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:145
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  1. Golinelli, Roberto & Orsi, Renzo, 1994. "Price-Wage Dynamics in a Transition Economy: The Case of Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 293-313.
  2. Roberto Golinelli & Renzo Orsi, . "Exchange Rate, Inflation and Unemployment in East European Economies: the Case of Poland and Hungary," Ace Project Memoranda 96/11, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  3. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107, December.
  4. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, 2000. "Wages, Prices, Productivity, Inflation and Unemployment in Italy 1970-1994," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0911, Econometric Society.
  5. Johansen, S., 1991. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Papers 76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  6. Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1999. "Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated VAR Processes with Markovian Regime Shifts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1113, Society for Computational Economics.
  7. Bontemps, Christophe & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Congruence and encompassing," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0107, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  8. repec:sae:niesru:v:111:y::i:1:p:62-85 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 129-36, January.
  10. Welfe, Aleksander, 1996. "The Price-Wage Inflationary Spiral in Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 33-50.
  11. R. Layard & S. Nickell, 1985. "The Causes of British Unemployment," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 111(1), pages 62-85, February.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  13. Welfe, Aleksander, 1991. "Modelling Wages in Centrally Planned Economies: The Case of Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 47-58.
  14. Clements, Michael P. & Mizon, Grayham E., 1991. "Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series : VAR and structural models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 887-917, May.
  15. Christopher L. Erikson & Andrea Ichino, 1994. "Wage Differentials in Italy: Market Forces, Institutions, and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
  17. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, December.
  18. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 1998. "Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-572, December.
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