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Exchange Rate, Inflation and Unemployment in East European Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary

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  • Golinelli, Roberto
  • Orsi, Renzo

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to model the impact of exchange rate on both inflation and unemployment variables in economies which are characterized by important structural changes, i.e., a transition phase moving from centralized economies towards market economies. This phenomenon, which is common to the East European countries, stressed different effects both for what concerns the behaviour of economic agents and for what concerns fiscal and monetary measures adopted by governments and aiming to keep under control the inflation-unemployment trade off. Time series relationships between these variables are investigated within an econometric model. Economic theory and the available data on the hypothetically relevant variables, along with the consideration of the main facts occurred in the period under study, characterize our information set. It is found that single equation analysis yields inefficient inference relative to the whole system analysis, and important structural changes are detected which reflect possible breaks in the structure of the economic system along with a change in economic policy. Copyright 1998 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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  • Golinelli, Roberto & Orsi, Renzo, 1998. "Exchange Rate, Inflation and Unemployment in East European Economies: The Case of Poland and Hungary," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 29-55.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:31:y:1998:i:1:p:29-55
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    Cited by:

    1. Qizilbash, M., 1994. "Decisions and moral character," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9417, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    2. Sujoy Mukerji, 1996. "Understanding the nonadditive probability decision model (*)," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 9(1), pages 23-46.
    3. Tihomir Enev & Kenneth Koford, 2000. "The Effect of Incomes Policies on Inflation in Bulgaria and Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 141-169, October.
    4. Ken Hendricks & Michele Piccione & Guofu Tan, 1999. "Equilibria in Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1407-1434, November.
    5. Mohieldin, M. & Wahba, J., 1996. "The Urguay Round and trade in financial services in the Arab countries," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9617, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    6. Vesna BUCEVSKA, "undated". "A Macroeconometric Model for the Republic of Macedonia," EcoMod2004 330600030, EcoMod.
    7. Chiarini, B., 1993. "Persistence, comovement and common trends: an empirical study of disaggregated Italian output and labour input," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9317, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    8. Erjavec, Natasa, 2003. "Applied macroeconometrics in transition economy: Croatian experience," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 23444, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mizon, Grayham E., 2000. "Modelling shifts in the wage-price and unemployment-inflation relationships in Italy, Poland and the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 387-413, August.
    10. Mateos-Planas, X., 1998. "Education, technology adoption and productivity," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9817, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    11. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "Beating the random walk in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 189-201.
    12. Sola, M. & Ravn, M.O., 1992. "The use of recursive variance plots: a note," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9217, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.

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