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Modelling shifts in the wage-price and unemployment-inflation relationships in Italy, Poland and the UK

  • Marcellino, Massimiliano
  • Mizon, Grayham E.

The relationship between wages, prices, productivity, inflation, and unemployment in Italy, Poland, and the UK between the 1960’s and the early 1990’s is modelled as a cointegrated vector autoregression subject to regime shifts. For each of these economies there is clear evidence of a change in the underlying equilibria of this sector of the economy. Hypotheses concerning the similarity of the transition from a rigid to a flexible labour market are tested.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 17 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 387-413

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:17:y:2000:i:3:p:387-413
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  1. H. Krolzig, 1996. "Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated VAR Processes with Markovian Regime Shifts," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,25, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  2. Roberto Golinelli & Renzo Orsi, 1996. "Exchange rate Inflation and Unemployment in East European Economies: the Case of Poland and Hungary," Working Papers 265, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  3. Roberto Golinelli & Renzo Orsi, 1994. "Price-Wage Dynamics is A Transition Economy: The Case of Poland," Working Papers 192, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  4. Bontemps, Christophe & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Congruence and encompassing," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0107, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  5. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 1998. "Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-572, December.
  6. Johansen, S., 1991. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Papers 76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  7. Christopher L. Erikson & Andrea Ichino, 1994. "Wage Differentials in Italy: Market Forces, Institutions, and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 4922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  9. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 129-36, January.
  10. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
  11. Clements, Michael P. & Mizon, Grayham E., 1991. "Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series : VAR and structural models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 887-917, May.
  12. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, 2000. "Wages, Prices, Productivity, Inflation and Unemployment in Italy 1970-1994," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0911, Econometric Society.
  13. Welfe, Aleksander, 1996. " The Price-Wage Inflationary Spiral in Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 33-50.
  14. repec:sae:niesru:v:111:y::i:1:p:62-85 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, July.
  16. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107, July.
  17. Welfe, Aleksander, 1991. " Modelling Wages in Centrally Planned Economies: The Case of Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 47-58.
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