IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article

The dynamic effects of shocks to wages and prices in the United States and the Euro Area

  • Rita Duarte

    ()

  • Carlos Marques

    ()

This article investigates the dynamics of aggregate wages and prices in the United States (US) and the Euro Area (EA) with a special focus on persistence of real wages, wage and price inflation. The analysis is conducted within a structural vector error-correction model, where the structural shocks are identified using the long-run properties of the theoretical model, as well as the cointegrating properties of the estimated system. Overall, in the long run, wage and price inflation emerge as more persistent in the EA than in the US in the face of import price, unemployment, or permanent technology shocks. This finding is robust to the changes in the sample period and in the models’ specifications entertained in the article. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-012-0561-9
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 44 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 613-638

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:44:y:2013:i:2:p:613-638
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com

Order Information: Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/econometrics/journal/181/PS2

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Philip Vermeulen & Daniel A. Dias & Maarten Dossche & Erwan Gautier & Ignacio Hernando & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl, 2012. "Price Setting in the Euro Area: Some Stylized Facts from Individual Producer Price Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1631-1650, December.
  2. M. Druant & S. Fabiani & Gabor Kezdi & Ana Lamo & Fernando Martins & R. Sabbatini, 2009. "How are Firms’ Wages and Prices Linked: Survey Evidence in Europe," Working Papers w200918, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  3. Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1494, Econometric Society.
  4. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2005. "Real wage rigidities and the New Keynesian model," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Samuel Bentolila & Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno, 2007. "Does Immigration Affect the Phillips Curve? Some Evidence for Spain," Kiel Working Papers 1333, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2008. "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does it Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(3), pages 863-904.
  7. Dias, Daniel & Robalo Marques, Carlos, 2005. "Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence," Working Paper Series 0450, European Central Bank.
  8. G. Peersman & I. Van Robays, 2009. "Oil and the Euro Area Economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/582, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  9. Brüggemann, Ralf, 2001. "Sources of German unemployment: A structural vector error correction analysis," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,19, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  10. Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca & Pappa, Evi, 2006. "The Structural Dynamics of Output Growth and Inflation: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 5878, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 512-549, March.
  12. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
  13. Adrian R. Pagan & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2008. "Econometric Analysis of Structural Systems with Permanent and Transitory Shocks," Discussion Papers 2008-04, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  14. Carstensen, Kai & Hansen, Gerd, 2000. "Cointegration and common trends on the West German labour market," Munich Reprints in Economics 19947, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  15. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence Katz, 1999. "Wage Dynamics: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë McHugh, 2001. "Modelling Wages and Prices in Australia," Working Paper Series 1202, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 30 Sep 2005.
  17. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
  18. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464.
  19. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
  20. Feldstein, Martin, 2008. "Did wages reflect growth in productivity?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 591-594.
  21. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  22. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March.
  23. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mizon, Grayham E., 2000. "Modelling shifts in the wage-price and unemployment-inflation relationships in Italy, Poland and the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 387-413, August.
  24. Stephane Dees & Filippo di Mauro & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2004. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: A Global VAR Analysis," IEPR Working Papers 04.6, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
  25. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
  26. Gonzalo, Jesús & Ng, Serena, 1996. "A systematic framework for analyzing the dynamic effects of permanent and transitory shocks," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6203, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  27. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2002. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-38, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  28. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  29. Anders Warne & Henrik Hansen, 2001. "The cause of Danish unemployment: Demand or supply shocks?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 461-486.
  30. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Small-system modelling of real wages, inflation, unemployment and output per capita in Italy 1970-1994," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 359-370.
  31. Andrew T. Levin & Alexei Onatski & John Williams & Noah M. Williams, 2006. "Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 229-312 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Harald Uhlig, 2004. "Do Technology Shocks Lead to a Fall in Total Hours Worked?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 361-371, 04/05.
  33. Dolado, Juan José & López-Salido, J. David & Balmaseda, Manuel, 1999. "The dynamic effects of shocks to labour markets : evidence from OECD countries," UC3M Working papers. Economics 6162, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  34. Carlos Robalo Marques, 2008. "Wage and Price Dynamics in Portugal," Working Papers w200815, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  35. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Identifying restrictions of linear equations with applications to simultaneous equations and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 111-132, September.
  36. Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
  37. Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Bank of England working papers 272, Bank of England.
  38. Paul G. Fisher & Gunnar BÅrdsen, 1999. "Economic theory and econometric dynamics in modelling wages and prices in the United Kingdom," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 483-507.
  39. Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G. & Henry, S. G. Brian, 2002. "On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: a modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1517-1537, August.
  40. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008. "Explaining the Great Moderation: it is not the shocks," Working Paper Series 0865, European Central Bank.
  41. Soren Johansen, 2002. "A Small Sample Correction for the Test of Cointegrating Rank in the Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1929-1961, September.
  42. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 1999. "Weak exogeneity and long-run and contemporaneous identifying restrictions in VEC models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 159-165, May.
  43. William J. Crowder & Dennis L. Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 1999. "Identification, Long-Run Relations, and Fundamental Innovations in a Simple Cointegrated System," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 109-121, February.
  44. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
  45. Thórarinn G. Pétursson & Torsten Sløk, 2001. "Wage formation and employment in a cointegrated VAR model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 2.
  46. Feldstein, Martin, 2008. "Did Wages Reflect Growth in Productivity?," Scholarly Articles 2794832, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  47. Anders Forslund & Nils Gottfries & Andreas Westermark, 2008. "Prices, Productivity and Wage Bargaining in Open Economies," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(1), pages 169-195, 03.
  48. Mirko Abbritti; Sebastian Weber, 2008. "Labor Market Rigidities and the Business Cycle: Price vs. Quantity Restricting Institutions," IHEID Working Papers 01-2008, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Jan 2008.
  49. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345.
  50. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Papers 2002-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  51. Helmut Luetkepohl, 2005. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis for Cointegrated Variables," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/02, European University Institute.
  52. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-40, September.
  53. Assar Lindbeck, 1993. "Unemployment and Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262121751.
  54. Nickell, S J & Andrews, M, 1983. "Unions, Real Wages and Employment in Britain 1951-79," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(0), pages 183-206, Supplemen.
  55. Emmanuel Dhyne & Luis J. Alvarez & Herve Le Bihan & Giovanni Veronese & Daniel Dias & Johannes Hoffmann & Nicole Jonker & Patrick Lunnemann & Fabio Rumler & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Price Changes in the Euro Area and the United States: Some Facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 171-192, Spring.
  56. Jacobson, Tor & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1997. "Common trends and hysteresis in Scandinavian unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1781-1816, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:44:y:2013:i:2:p:613-638. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)

or (Rebekah McClure)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.