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Understanding the nonadditive probability decision model (*)

Author

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  • Sujoy Mukerji

    (Department of Economics, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton S017 1BJ, UK e-mail:sm5Gsoton.ac.uk)

Abstract

The pioneering research of Schmeidler [19] [20] and others identified behavioral axioms that underlie preferences consistent with the maximization of Choquet expected utility. However, these theories do not clarify the link between the epistemics of the decision maker's (DM) problem and his choice. This paper shows that if the DM is aware that his anticipation and perception of future contingencies is incomplete, then his subjective beliefs will be described by a nonadditive probability specification. Further, if the DM acts with a certain notion of caution given the incompleteness in his understanding of the environment, his preferences over acts may have a Choquet expected utility representation. The model developed here thus provides a justification of such beliefs and preferences based on "procedural rationality". The formalism also allows a simple characterization of how belief representation may change as the DM acquires a clearer picture of the contingency space underlying the uncertain environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Sujoy Mukerji, 1996. "Understanding the nonadditive probability decision model (*)," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 9(1), pages 23-46.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:9:y:1996:i:1:p:23-46
    Note: Received: April 6, 1995; revised version November 27, 1995
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    Cited by:

    1. Roman Kozhan, 2011. "Non-additive anonymous games," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 40(2), pages 215-230, May.
    2. Adriana Castaldo & Massimo Marinacci, 2001. "Random correspndences as bundles of random variables," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 12-2001, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    3. Larry Epstein & Massimo Marinacci, 2005. "Coarse Contingencies," RCER Working Papers 515, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    4. Luca Rigotti & Matthew Ryan & Rhema Vaithianathan, 2011. "Optimism and firm formation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 46(1), pages 1-38, January.
    5. Nabil I. Al-Najjar & Luciano De Castro, 2010. "Uncertainty, Efficiency and Incentive Compatibility," Discussion Papers 1532, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    6. Chateauneuf, Alain & Dana, Rose-Anne & Tallon, Jean-Marc, 2000. "Optimal risk-sharing rules and equilibria with Choquet-expected-utility," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 191-214, October.
    7. Marie-Louise Vierø, 2009. "Exactly what happens after the Anscombe–Aumann race?," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 41(2), pages 175-212, November.
    8. Mukerji, Sujoy & Tallon, Jean-Marc, 2004. "Ambiguity aversion and the absence of wage indexation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 653-670, April.
    9. Jean-Marc Tallon & Sujoy Mukerji, 2004. "Ambiguity aversion and the absence of wage indexation," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00174562, HAL.
    10. Vassili Vergopoulos, 2011. "Dynamic consistency for non-expected utility preferences," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 48(2), pages 493-518, October.
    11. Marcello Basili & Carlo Zappia, 2010. "Ambiguity and uncertainty in Ellsberg and Shackle," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 449-474.
    12. Jürgen Eichberger & David Kelsey, 1999. "E-Capacities and the Ellsberg Paradox," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 107-138, April.
    13. Ayala Arad & Gabrielle Gayer, 2012. "Imprecise Data Sets as a Source of Ambiguity: A Model and Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(1), pages 188-202, January.
    14. Galanis, Spyros, 2007. "Unawareness of theorems," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 51816, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.

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