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Wages, Prices, Productivity, Inflation and Unemployment in Italy 1970-1994

  • Massimiliano Marcellino

    (Instituto di Economia Politica and IGIER)

  • Grayham E. Mizon

    (Southampton University)

The relationships between wages, prices, productivity, inflation and unemployment in Italy between 1970 and 1994, are modelled using a cointegrated vector autoregression. There is evidence of a change in the underlying equilibria and in the dynamic evolution of the variables, probably associated with the substantial changes in many sectors of the Italian economy after 1979. Alternative ways to model structural change in the Italian labour market are considered, including choice of lag length, the use of dummy variables, modelling conditionally on related macroeconomic variables, and modelling separate regimes. In adopting a split sample approach the results favour an hysteresis interpretation of unemployment.

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers with number 0911.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:0911
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  1. Julia Campos & Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry, 1993. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," International Finance Discussion Papers 440, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  12. Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 1998. "Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-572, December.
  13. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Summers, Lawrence H, 1988. "Beyond the Natural Rate Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 182-87, May.
  14. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1999. "On selecting policy analysis models by forecast accuracy," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9918, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
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  16. Bean, Charles R., 1994. "European unemployment: A retrospective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 523-534, April.
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  19. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, June.
  20. repec:sae:niesru:v:111:y::i:1:p:62-85 is not listed on IDEAS
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