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On the Dynamics of Unemployment in a Developing Economy: Colombia

Author

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  • Ana María Iregui
  • Jesús Otero

Abstract

This paper estimates an asymmetric error correction model to analyse the dynamic behaviour of the Colombian unemployment rate. We find evidence that wages above their long- run equilibrium level do increase unemployment, but wages below this level do not reduce it.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana María Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2002. "On the Dynamics of Unemployment in a Developing Economy: Colombia," Borradores de Economia 208, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:208
    DOI: 10.32468/be.208
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2001. "Unemployment Rate And The Real Wage Behavior: A Neoclassical Hint For The Colombian Labor Market Adjustment," Borradores de Economia 3736, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Lora, Eduardo & Márquez, Gustavo, 1998. "The Employment Problem in Latin America: Perceptions and Stylized Facts," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1286, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 49-87.
    4. Eduardo Lora & Gustavo Márquez, 1998. "The Employment Problem in Latin America: Perceptions and Stylized Facts," Research Department Publications 4114, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    5. Escribano, Alvaro & Pfann, Gerard A., 1998. "Non-linear error correction, asymmetric adjustment and cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 197-216, April.
    6. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    7. Cook, Steven & Holly, Sean & Turner, Paul, 1999. "The power of tests for non-linearity: the case of Granger-Lee asymmetry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 155-159, February.
    8. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    9. Alvaro Escribano & Santiago Mira, 2002. "Nonlinear error correction models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 509-522, September.
    10. repec:idb:wpaper:371 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    12. Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages 145-159, Supplemen.
    13. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mizon, Grayham E., 2000. "Modelling shifts in the wage-price and unemployment-inflation relationships in Italy, Poland and the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 387-413, August.
    14. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mizon, Grayham E., 2000. "Modelling shifts in the wage-price and unemployment-inflation relationships in Italy, Poland and the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 387-413, August.
    15. Luis Arango & Carlos Posada, 2002. "Unemployment rate and the real wage behaviour: a neoclassical hint for the Colombian labour market adjustment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 425-428.
    16. Steven Cook & Sean Holly, 2002. "Threshold specification for asymmetric error correction models," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(11), pages 711-713.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Ana María Iregui & Luis Fernando Melo, 2003. "Recent Behavior of Output, Unemployment, Wages and Prices in Colombia:What went Wrong?," Borradores de Economia 249, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 389, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Luis Eduardo Arango & IREGUI, Ana María & MELO, Luis F., 2006. "Recent macroeconomic performance in colombia: what went wrong?," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, June.
    4. Fabio Gomes & Cleomar Gomes da Silva, 2007. "Hysteresis vs. natural rate of unemployment in Brazil and Chile," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 53-56.
    5. José R. Gamarra, 2006. "¿Cómo se comportan las tasas de desempleo en siete ciudades colombianas?," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, December.
    6. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "La Tasa De Desempleo De Largo Plazo En Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3085, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Magnus Gustavsson & Par Osterholm, 2006. "Hysteresis and non-linearities in unemployment rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 545-548.
    8. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Case Colombian," Borradores de Economia 3629, Banco de la Republica.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; wage disequilibrium; labour market; cointegration; non-linearties; Colombia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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