Nonlinear Phillips curves, mixing feedback rules and the distribution of inflation and output
Optimal nominal interest rate rules are usually set assuming that the underlying world is linear. In this paper we consider the performance of optimal rules when the underlying relationship between inflation and the output gap may be nonlinear. In particular if the inflation-output trade off exhibits nonlinearities this will impart a bias to inflation when a linear rule is used. By deriving some analytical results for the higher moments and in particular the skewness of the distribution of output and inflation, we show that the sign of the skewness of the distribution of inflation and output depends upon the nature of the nonlinearity. For the convex modified hyperbolic function used by Chadha et al. (1992) and Schaling (1999) inflation is positively and output negatively skewed. Whereas, if a concave-convex form is used the skewness of inflation and output is reversed. To correct this bias we propose a piecewise linear rule, which can be thought of as an approximation to the nonlinear rule of Schaling (1999). In order to evaluate the relevance of these results, we turn to some illustrative empirical results for the US and the UK. We show that this reduces the bias, but at the expense of an increase in the volatility of the nominal interest rate.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S145-59, Supplemen.
- Andrew J. Filardo, 1998. "New evidence on the output cost of fighting inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1996.
"Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Seminar Papers 615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Lars E O Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
- Guy Meredith & Bankim Chadha & Paul R. Masson, 1991.
"Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation,"
IMF Working Papers
91/97, International Monetary Fund.
- Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999.
"The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Eric Schaling, 1999. "The non-linear Phillips curve and inflation forecast targeting," Bank of England working papers 98, Bank of England.
- Ray C. Fair, 2001.
"On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1300, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2002.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997.
"The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998. "The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy," Working Paper 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Corrado Luisa & Holly Sean & Turner Paul, 2002. "Nonlinearities and Inactivity in Aggregate Investment: Some Theoretical Analysis and Time-Series Evidence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(4), pages 1-21, January.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
- Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
- Schellekens, P. & Chadha, J.S., 1999.
"Monetary Policy Loss Functions: Two Cheers for the Quadratic,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9920, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Jagjit Chadha & Philip Schellekens, 1999. "Monetary policy loss functions: two cheers for the quadratic," Bank of England working papers 101, Bank of England.
- CHADHA, Jagjit & SCHELLEKENS, Philip, . "Monetary policy loss functions: two cheers for the quadratic," Working Papers 1999002, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
- Escribano, Alvaro & Pfann, Gerard A., 1998.
"Non-linear error correction, asymmetric adjustment and cointegration,"
Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 197-216, April.
- Pfann, Gerard & Escribano, Álvaro, 1991. "Nonlinear error correction, asymmetric adjusment and cointegration," UC3M Working papers. Economics 2807, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
- Bean, Charles, 1998. "The New UK Monetary Arrangements: A View from the Literature," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1795-1809, November.
- Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1999.
"Are "deep" parameters stable? the Lucas critique as an empirical hypothesis,"
99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Jeff Fuhrer & Arturo Estrella, 1999. "Are 'Deep' Parameters Stable? The Lucas Critique as an Empirical Hypothesis," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 621, Society for Computational Economics.
- Guy Debelle & Douglas Laxton, 1997.
"Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 249-282, June.
- Douglas Laxton & Guy Debelle, 1996. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Working Papers 96/111, International Monetary Fund.
- Mojon, Benoît & Kashyap, Anil K. & Angeloni, Ignazio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area : Where Do We Stand?," Working Paper Series 0114, European Central Bank.
- Cook, Steven & Holly, Sean & Turner, Paul, 1999. "The power of tests for non-linearity: the case of Granger-Lee asymmetry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 155-159, February.
- Holly,Sean & Hughes Hallet,Andrew, 2010.
"Optimal Control, Expectations and Uncertainty,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521126335, June.
- Joshua Aizenman & Ricardo Hausmann, 1994. "Why is Inflation Skewed? A Debt and Volatility Story," NBER Working Papers 4837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bianchi, Carlo & Calzolari, Giorgio & Corsi, Paolo, 1978. "A Program for Stochastic Simulation of Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 235-36, January.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1999.
"Issues in the design of monetary policy rules,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530
- Holly, S. & Zarrop, M. B., 1983. "On optimality and time consistency when expectations are rational," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 23-40, January.
- Douglas Laxton & Guy Meredith & David Rose, 1994.
"Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activityon Inflation; Evidence and Policy Implications,"
IMF Working Papers
94/139, International Monetary Fund.
- Douglas Laxton & Guy Meredith & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation: Evidence and Policy Implications," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 344-374, June.
- Alvaro Escribano & Santiago Mira, 2001.
"Nonlinear error correction models,"
Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC
2001-03, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC.
- Mira, Santiago & Escribano, Álvaro, 1997. "Nonlinear error correction models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6206, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
- John B. Taylor, 1994. "The inflation/output variability trade-off revisited," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 38, pages 21-24.
- Peter B. Clark & Douglas Laxton & David Rose, 1995. "Capacity Constraints, Inflation and the Transmission Mechanism; Forward-Looking Versus Myopic Policy Rules," IMF Working Papers 95/75, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:28:y:2003:i:3:p:467-492. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.