IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

The Phillips curve in the US: A nonlinear quantile regression approach

Listed author(s):
  • Xu, Qifa
  • Niu, Xufeng
  • Jiang, Cuixia
  • Huang, Xue
Registered author(s):

    In this paper we investigate the trade-off between the output gap and inflation using a nonlinear quantile regression approach. This approach combines the classical quantile regression with a nonlinear analysis technique and presents the advantages of discovering the heterogeneous nonlinearity of the Phillips curve across quantiles of the inflation distribution. For the empirical illustration, we compare three types of the Phillips curve models in the quantile regression framework. Empirical results for the United States show that the hybrid Phillips curve model outperforms the other two in terms of goodness of fit and prediction ability. We find that the shape of the Phillips curve for the United States is nonlinear and asymmetric, and varies considerably across quantiles. We also provide a novel look at the inflation changes by estimating the conditional density of inflation given different output gap levels, with the numerical results indicating that an increase of the output gap boosts the level of inflation as well as raises the uncertainty of inflation. Our findings imply that the effectiveness of monetary policy mainly depends on the phase of the economic cycle and the inflation uncertainty.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026499931500108X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

    Volume (Year): 49 (2015)
    Issue (Month): C ()
    Pages: 186-197

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:49:y:2015:i:c:p:186-197
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.04.007
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as
    in new window


    1. Giacomini, Raffaella & Komunjer, Ivana, 2005. "Evaluation and Combination of Conditional Quantile Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 416-431, October.
    2. Heng Lian, 2012. "Semiparametric Estimation of Additive Quantile Regression Models by Two-Fold Penalty," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 337-350, March.
    3. Corrado, Luisa & Holly, Sean, 2003. "Nonlinear Phillips curves, mixing feedback rules and the distribution of inflation and output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 467-492, December.
    4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    5. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    6. Georgiana BALABAN & Denis VÎNTU, 2010. "Testing the Nonlinearity of the Phillips Curve. Implications for Monetary Policy," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 4(4(545)), pages 101-120, April.
    7. (River) Huang, Ho-Chuan & Lin, Shu-Chin & Suen, Yu-Bo & Yeh, Chih-Chuan, 2007. "A quantile inference of the Kuznets hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 559-570, July.
    8. Tambakis, Demosthenes N, 2002. "Expected Social Welfare under a Convex Philips Curve and Asymmetric Policy Preferences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 434-449, May.
    9. Baghli, Mustapha & Cahn, Christophe & Fraisse, Henri, 2007. "Is the inflation-output Nexus asymmetric in the Euro area?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 1-6, January.
    10. Hasanov, Mübariz & Araç, Aysen & Telatar, Funda, 2010. "Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1103-1115, September.
    11. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    13. Çiçek, Serkan & Akar, Cüneyt, 2013. "The asymmetry of inflation adjustment in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 104-118.
    14. Andrew J. Filardo, 1998. "New evidence on the output cost of fighting inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III.
    15. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731.
    16. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2011. "Output gap measurement and the New Keynesian Phillips curve for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2462-2468.
    17. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
    18. Arslan, M. Murat, 2010. "Relative importance of sticky prices and sticky information in price setting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1124-1135, September.
    19. Baxa, Jaromír & Plašil, Miroslav & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Changes in inflation dynamics under inflation targeting? Evidence from Central European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-130.
    20. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    21. Antonio F. Galvao JR. & Gabriel Montes-Rojas & Sung Y. Park, 2013. "Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model with an Application to House Price Returns," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(2), pages 307-321, 04.
    22. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Understanding the inflation-output nexus for China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 82-90, March.
    23. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    24. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    25. Kichian, Maral & Rumler, Fabio, 2014. "Forecasting Canadian inflation: A semi-structural NKPC approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 183-191.
    26. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    27. Machado, José A.F., 1993. "Robust Model Selection and M-Estimation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 478-493, June.
    28. Harry Haupt & Kathrin Kagerer & Joachim Schnurbus, 2011. "Cross-validating fit and predictive accuracy of nonlinear quantile regressions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(12), pages 2939-2954, March.
    29. Eun Ryung Lee & Hohsuk Noh & Byeong U. Park, 2014. "Model Selection via Bayesian Information Criterion for Quantile Regression Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(505), pages 216-229, March.
    30. Vinod, Hrishikesh D., 2006. "Maximum entropy ensembles for time series inference in economics," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 955-978, December.
    31. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    32. Huh, Hyeon-seung & Jang, Inwon, 2007. "Nonlinear Phillips curve, sacrifice ratio, and the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 797-813, September.
    33. Malikane, Christopher, 2014. "A new Keynesian triangle Phillips curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 247-255.
    34. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678-678.
    35. Tsong, Ching-Chuan & Lee, Cheng-Feng, 2011. "Asymmetric inflation dynamics: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 668-680.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:49:y:2015:i:c:p:186-197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.