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Has Monetary Policy Reacted To Asset Price Movements: Evidence From The Uk

  • A. Kontonikas

    ()

  • A. Montagnoli

This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and asset prices in the context of empirical policy rules. We begin our analysis by establishing the forecasting ability of house and stock price changes with respect to future aggregate demand. We then report estimates of monetary policy reaction functions for the United Kingdom over the period 1992-2003. We find that UK policymakers appear to take into account the effect of asset price inflation when setting interest rates with a higher weight being assigned to property market fluctuations. Asset inflationaugmented rules describe more accurately actual policy, and the results are robust to modelling the effect of the Bank of England independence.

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File URL: http://www.brunel.ac.uk/329/efwps/02-11.pdf
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Paper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Economics and Finance Discussion Papers with number 02-11.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bru:bruedp:02-11
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Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK

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  1. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semiclassical Structural Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 15-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
  3. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
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  7. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D. & Reifschneider, David & Tetlow, Robert & Finan, Frederico, 2000. "Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 117-141.
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  11. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Introduction to "Monetary Policy Rules"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 1-14 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  13. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Cukierman Alex, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, And Independance: Theory And Evidence," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 10, December.
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  18. C. Goodhart, 2001. "What Weight Should be Given to Asset Prices in the Measurementof Inflation?," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 65, Netherlands Central Bank.
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