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Central bank independence and inflation expectations: evidence from British index-linked gilts

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  • Mark M. Spiegel

Abstract

This paper conducts a case study of the impact of the May 6, 1997, announcement of enhanced independence of the Bank of England on estimates of expected future inflation and real interest rates. These are generated from observed yields on conventional and index-linked British gilts. For the longest-term bonds in the study, we find a 34 and 60 bases point decline in expected average future inflation over the life of the bond for one-day and two-week event windows, respectively. These results support the contention that institutional changes alone do affect agents' inflationary expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark M. Spiegel, 1998. "Central bank independence and inflation expectations: evidence from British index-linked gilts," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-14.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1998:p:3-14:n:1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-1189.
    2. David Barr & John Campbell, "undated". "Inflation, real interest rates and the bond market: a study of UK nominal and index-linked Government bond prices," CERF Discussion Paper Series 95-09, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    3. Pu Shen, 1995. "Benefits and limitations of inflation indexed Treasury bonds," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 41-56.
    4. Alex Cukierman, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031981, January.
    5. Taylor, John B., 1981. "On the relation between the variability of inflation and the average inflation rate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 57-85, January.
    6. Mark Deacon & Andrew Derry, 1994. "Deriving Estimates of Inflation Expectations from the Prices of UK Government Bonds," Bank of England working papers 23, Bank of England.
    7. Kandel, Shmuel & Ofer, Aharon R & Sarig, Oded, 1996. " Real Interest Rates and Inflation: An Ex-Ante Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 205-225, March.
    8. Timothy Cogley, 1995. "Inflation uncertainty and excess returns on stocks and banks," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 21-29.
    9. Arak, Marcelle & Kreicher, Lawrence, 1985. "The Real Rate of Interest: Inferences from the New U.K. Indexed Gilts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 399-408, June.
    10. Guy Debelle & Stanley Fischer, 1994. "How independent should a central bank be?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 38, pages 195-225.
    11. Eijffinger, S. & De Hann, J., 1995. "The Political Economy of Central Bank Independence," Papers 9587, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
    12. Adam S. Posen, 1995. "Declarations Are Not Enough: Financial Sector Sources of Central Bank Independence," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 253-274 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. JoAnne Morris & Tonny Lybek, 2004. "Central Bank Governance; A Survey of Boards and Management," IMF Working Papers 04/226, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Thorsten Lehnert & Aleksandar Andonov & Florian Bardong, 2009. "TIPS, Inflation Expectations and the Financial Crisis," LSF Research Working Paper Series 09-09, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    3. Juan Angel Garcia & Adrian van Rixtel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a central bank perspective," Occasional Papers 0705, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    4. Hermann Sintim-Aboagye, 2005. "Emerging Economies, Turnover Rates and Inflation Variability: A Comparison of Generalized Maximum Likelihood and SUR Models," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 167-178, June.
    5. Kamal, Mona, 2010. "الإطار النظرى للتنسيق بين السياستين المالية والنقدية
      [The Theoretical Framework for the Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Polices]
      ," MPRA Paper 26856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Aleksandra Maslowska, 2008. "Quest for the best: How to measure central bank independence and show its relation with inflation?," Discussion Papers 37, Aboa Centre for Economics.

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