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Monetary Policy Loss Functions: Two Cheers for the Quadratic

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Abstract

The authors examine the implications for the optimal interest rate rule that follow from relaxing the assumption that the policy-maker's loss function is quadratic. They investigate deviations from quadratics for both symmetric and asymmetric preferences for a single target and find that (i) other characterisations of risk aversion than implied by the quadratic only affect dead-weight losses, unless there is multiplicative uncertainty; and (ii) asymmetries affect the optimal rule under both additive and multiplicative uncertainty but result in interest rate paths observationally similar, and in some cases equivalent, to those implied by a shifted quadratic. The results suggest that in the context of monetary policy-making the convenient assumption of quadratic losses may not be that drastic after all.

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  • Schellekens, P. & Chadha, J.S., 1999. "Monetary Policy Loss Functions: Two Cheers for the Quadratic," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9920, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:9920
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    1. Horowitz, Ann R., 1987. "Loss functions and public policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 489-504.
    2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    3. James Tobin, 1989. "On the Theory of Macroeconomic Policy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 931, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Shiller, Robert J., 1999. "Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1305-1340, Elsevier.
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    6. Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 1997. "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(6), pages 808-817, December.
    7. Deaton, Angus, 1992. "Understanding Consumption," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288244.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loss functions; Uncertainty; Optimal monetary policy rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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