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Assessing Monetary Rules Performance across EMU Countries

Author

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  • Carlo Altavilla

    (K.U.Leuven, C.E.S., International Economics)

Abstract

The topic covered in this paper is the performance of different monetary policy rules thought to be used as a guideline in practical policymaking. In this respect, different rules are estimated using alternative econometrics techniques. A comparative analysis based on the ability of the rules in capturing the historical central banks' behaviour and on the volatility on the output, inflation and interest rate changes that they imply is performed. The study is conducted on the EMU countries. The results suggest that the simple rules perform quite well and that the gains obtained from adopting an optimal control-based rule are not so large. Moreover the addition of a forward-looking dimension and of an interest rate smoothing term in the reaction function seems to improve the performance of the rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Altavilla, 2001. "Assessing Monetary Rules Performance across EMU Countries," International Economics Working Papers Series ces0108, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën, International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kul:kulwps:ces0108
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    Cited by:

    1. Ho-Chuan Huang & Shu-Chin Lin, 2006. "Time-varying discrete monetary policy reaction functions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 449-464.
    2. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2010. "Monetary policy rules for convergence to the Euro," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 148-159, June.
    3. Altavilla, Carlo & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2009. "The effects of monetary policy on unemployment dynamics under model uncertainty: evidence from the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 1089, European Central Bank.
    4. António Afonso & Raquel Balhote, 2014. "Interactions between Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/13, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Jurkšas, Linas, 2024. "The impact of the heterogenous fiscal policy stance of euro-area member states on ECB monetary policy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(4).
    6. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2009. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Unemployment Dynamics under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the United States and the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1265-1300, October.
    7. Baher Ahmed Elgahry, 2020. "Regional and Interregional Business Cycle Comovement in Europe, Asia, and North America," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 3088-3103.
    8. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2002. "La politique monétaire face à l'incertitude : un survol méthodologique des contributions relatives à la zone euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 177-200.
    9. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara & Eleftheriou, Maria, 2006. "Monetary policy rules in the pre-EMU era: Is there a common rule?," Working Paper Series 659, European Central Bank.
    10. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2009. "Taylor rules in the open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 971-995, November.
    11. J. Kilponen & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas & J. Vilmunen, 2006. "Bayesian versus robust control approach towards parameter uncertainty in monetary policymaking: how close are the outcomes? Some illustrating evidence from the EMU economies," Post-Print hal-00150522, HAL.
    12. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2008. "Inflation models, optimal monetary policy and uncertain unemployment dynamics: Evidence from the US and the euro area," Discussion Papers 8_2008, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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