Forward Interest Rates as Indicators of Inflation Expectations
Forward interest rates have become popular indicators of inflation expectations. The usefulness of this indicator depends on the relative volatilty and the correlation of inflation expectations and expected real interest rates. This paper studies U.S. and U.K. data, using a range of different tools and data sets. The forward rate rule perfoms reasonably well, in spite of significant movements in the expected real interest rate. The reason is that the 'noise' that movements in the expected real interest rate add to the inflation expectations is balanced by a tendency for expected real interest rates and inflation expectations to move in opposite directions.
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|Date of creation:||1995|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: UNIVERSITY OF STOCKHOLM, INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES, S- 106 91 STOCKHOLM SWEDEN.|
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- Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996.
"The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
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- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "An indicator of future inflation extracted from the steepness of the interest rate yield curve along its entire length," Research Paper 9122, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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- Christopher Ragan, "undated". "Deriving Agents' Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff Working Papers 95-1, Bank of Canada.
- Christopher Ragan, 1995. "Deriving Agents' Inflation Forecasts from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Macroeconomics 9502003, EconWPA.
- Milton Friedman & Anna Jacobson Schwartz, 1970. "Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie70-1, December.
- Deaton, Angus, 1992. "Understanding Consumption," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288244.
- Robert Mundell, 1963. "Inflation and Real Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 280-280. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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