IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/regstd/v38y2004i2p167-176.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Persistent Regional Unemployment Differentials Revisited

Author

Listed:
  • David Gray

Abstract

Gray D. (2004) Persistent regional unemployment differentials revisited, Reg. Studies 38, 167-176. Based on bivariate and multivariate cointegration, three inferences concerning the nature of the British regional unemployment rates are drawn. First, regional unemployment rates are characterized by long-run, persistent relationships. The differentials are maintained by equilibrating systemic forces that induce co-movements of rates in the long-run, implying that decreasing the national rate of unemployment will reduce regional rates, but not eliminate differentials. Second, multivariate cointegration provides a richer picture of unemployment co-movements compared with bivariate analysis. Third, East Anglia does not revert to an equilibrium relationship with the other regions, suggesting that it is not constrained to follow the common trends driving the British regional system in the long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • David Gray, 2004. "Persistent Regional Unemployment Differentials Revisited," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 167-176.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:38:y:2004:i:2:p:167-176
    DOI: 10.1080/0034340042000190145
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0034340042000190145
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco Bianchi & Gylfi Zoega, 1998. "Unemployment persistence: does the size of the shock matter?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 283-304.
    2. Decressin, Jorg & Fatas, Antonio, 1995. "Regional labor market dynamics in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1627-1655, December.
    3. Ron Martin, 1997. "Regional Unemployment Disparities and their Dynamics," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 237-252.
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    6. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    7. Cross, Rod B, 1987. " Hysteresis and Instability in the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(1), pages 71-89.
    8. McDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Regional House Prices in Britain: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 40(1), pages 43-55, February.
    9. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
    10. Dixon, Robert & Shepherd, David, 2001. "Trends and Cycles in Australian State and Territory Unemployment Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(238), pages 252-269, September.
    11. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1993. "The Natural Rate Hypothesis and its Testable Implications," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9314, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Pissarides, Christopher A & McMaster, Ian, 1990. "Regional Migration, Wages and Unemployment: Empirical Evidence and Implications for Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 812-831, October.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    14. Evans, Philip & McCormick, Barry, 1994. "The New Pattern of Regional Unemployment: Causes and Policy Significance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 633-647, May.
    15. Dickey, David A & Rossana, Robert J, 1994. "Cointegrated Time Series: A Guide to Estimation and Hypothesis Testing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(3), pages 325-353, August.
    16. David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton, 1991. "A primer on cointegration with an application to money and income," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 58-78.
    17. Boschen, John F. & Mills, Leonard O., 1995. "Tests of long-run neutrality using permanent monetary and real shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 25-44, February.
    18. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    19. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "Labour Force Participation: Timing and Persistence," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(5), pages 825-844.
    20. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    21. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    22. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
    23. A. P. Thirlwall, 1966. "Regional Unemployment As A Cyclical Phenomenon1," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 13(2), pages 205-219, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Monastiriotis, Vassilis, 2006. "Macro-determinants of UK regional unemployment and the role of employment flexibility," MPRA Paper 44, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Werner, Daniel, 2013. "Regional convergence analysis for skill-specific employment groups," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79706, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. David Gray, 2005. "An examination of regional interaction and super-regions in Britain: An error correction model approach," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(5), pages 619-632.
    4. Alexiadis, Stilianos & Eleftheriou, Konstantinos, 2010. "The Morphology of Income Convergence in US States: New Evidence using an Error-Correction-Model," MPRA Paper 20096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Werner, Daniel, 2014. "New insights into the development of regional unemployment disparities," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100416, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The nature of regional unemployment in Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 877-895, December.
    7. Joanna TYROWICZ & Piotr W�JCIK, 2009. "Some Remarks On The Effects Of Active Labour Market Policies In Post-Transition," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(2(8)_ Sum).
    8. Werner, Daniel, 2013. "New insights into the development of regional unemployment disparities," IAB Discussion Paper 201311, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Lee, Cheng-Feng & Hu, Te-Chung & Li, Ping-Cheng & Tsong, Ching-Chuan, 2013. "Asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates: Evidence from the quantile covariate unit root test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 72-84.
    10. Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2008. "Escaping the unemployment trap: The case of East Germany," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 542-556, December.
    11. Katrencik, David & Tyrowicz, Joanna & Wojcik, Piotr, 2008. "Unemployment Convergence in Transition," MPRA Paper 15386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Andrew E. Burke & Michael A. Nolan & Felix R. FitzRoy, 2006. "Education and Regional Job Creation by the Self-Employed: The English North-South Divide," Papers on Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy 2006-07, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy Group.
    13. Lee, Cheng-Feng, 2010. "Testing for unemployment hysteresis in nonlinear heterogeneous panels: International evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1097-1102, September.
    14. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2008. "Unemployment hysteresis in OECD countries: Centurial time series evidence with structural breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 312-325, March.
    15. Aviral Tiwari, 2014. "Unemployment hysteresis in Australia: evidence using nonlinear and stationarity tests with breaks," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 681-695, March.
    16. Stilianos Alexiadis & Konstantinos Eleftheriou & Peter Nijkamp, 2013. "Do Income Disparities dissipate across the US States? Experimenting with a Vector Error Correction Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-165/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:38:y:2004:i:2:p:167-176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CRES20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.