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Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models

Author

Listed:
  • Costas Milas
  • Jesus Otero
  • Theodore Panagiotidis

Abstract

This paper estimates linear and non-linear error correction models for the spot prices of four different coffee types. In line with economic priors, we find some evidence that when prices are too high, they move back to equilibrium more slowly than when they are too low. This may reflect the fact that, in the short run, it is easier for countries to restrict the supply of coffee in order to raise prices, rather than increase supply in order to reduce them. Further, there is some evidence that adjustment is faster when deviations from the equilibrium level get larger. Our forecasting analysis suggests that asymmetric and non-linear error correction models offer weak evidence of improved forecasting performance relative to the random walk model. *********************************************************************** Este documento estima modelos lineales y no-lineales de corrección de errores para los precios spot de cuatro tipos de café. En concordancia con las leyes económicas, se encuentra evidencia que cuando los precios están por encima de su nivel de equilibrio, retornan a éste mas lentamente que cuando están por debajo. Esto puede reflejar el hecho que, en el corto plazo, para los países productores de café es mas fácil restringir la oferta para incrementar precios, que incrementarla para reducirlos. Además, se encuentra evidencia que el ajuste es más rápido cuando las desviaciones del equilibrio son mayores. Los pronósticos que se obtienen a partir de los modelos de corrección de errores no lineales y asimétricos considerados en el trabajo, ofrecen una leve mejoría cuando se comparan con los pronósticos que resultan de un modelo de paseo aleatorio.

Suggested Citation

  • Costas Milas & Jesus Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2001. "Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models," Borradores de Investigación 002737, Universidad del Rosario.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000091:002737
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Andrea Bastianin & Alessandro Lanza & Matteo Manera, 2018. "Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(5), pages 623-633, September.
    3. Sephton, Peter S., 2019. "El Niño, La Niña, and a cup of Joe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Li, Xi-Le & Saghaian, Sayed, 2014. "The Presence Of Market Power In The Coffee Market: The Case Of Colombian Milds," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170348, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. David Ubilava, 2012. "El Niño, La Niña, and world coffee price dynamics," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 17-26, January.
    6. John M. Fry & Baoying Lai & Mark Rhodes, 2011. "The interdependence of Coffee spot and futures market," Working Papers 2011.1, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    7. Fousekis, Panos & Grigoriadis, Vasilis, 2022. "Conditional tail price risk spillovers in coffee markets across quality, physical space, and time: Empirical analysis with penalized quantile regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    8. Atanu Ghoshray, 2010. "The Extent Of The World Coffee Market," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 97-107, January.
    9. Man Wang & Kun Chen & Qin Luo & Chao Cheng, 2018. "Multi-Step Inflation Prediction with Functional Coefficient Autoregressive Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-16, May.
    10. Atanu Ghoshray, 2009. "On Price Dynamics for Different Qualities of Coffee," Review of Market Integration, India Development Foundation, vol. 1(1), pages 103-118, April.
    11. Andrea BASTIANIN & Alessandro LANZA & Matteo MANERA, 2016. "Economic Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation: Evidence from the Colombian Coffee Market," Departmental Working Papers 2016-14, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    12. Benedicto Lukanima & Raymond Swaray, 2014. "Market Reforms and Commodity Price Volatility: The Case of East African Coffee Market," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(8), pages 1152-1185, August.
    13. Coronado Ramírez Semei Leopoldo & Porras Serrano Jesús & Sandoval Bravo Salvador, 2013. "Aplicación de bicorrelación cruzada al rendimiento diario del precio del café," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 58(1), pages 117-129, enero-mar.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coffee prices; asymmetric and non-linear error correction models; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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