Modeling regime transition in stock index futures markets and forecasting implications
Using a time-varying regime-switching vector error correction approach, this paper seeks to address which factors explain the transition across regimes of the US and the UK stock index futures markets. The findings suggest that the basis exercises a significant effect in regime transition. The basis effect is driven by a dividend yield effect in the UK, and by a dividend yield effect and an interest rate effect in the USA. The volatility of the underlying index is another significant factor, which is consistent with the significance of the basis in conjunction with Chen et al. (1995). Furthermore, there is evidence of an international regime transition effect from the UK to the USA. In most cases, forecasts based on time-varying regime transition models are more accurate than forecasts based on models with constant transition probabilities. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chen, Nai-Fu & Cuny, Charles J & Haugen, Robert A, 1995. " Stock Volatility and the Levels of the Basis and Open Interest in Future Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 281-300, March.
- Yiuman Tse, 1999. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the DJIA index and futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(8), pages 911-930, December.
- Costas Milas & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2004.
"Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 277-288.
- Costas Milas & Jesus Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2001. "Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 002737, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
- Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002.
"Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen/Seo paper on threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00092, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Green, Christopher J & Joujon, Emmanuel, 2000. "Unified Tests of Causality and Cost of Carry: The Pricing of the French Stock Index Futures Contract," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(2), pages 121-40, April.
- Siklos, P.L. & Granger, C.W.J., 1997.
"Regime Sensitive Cointegration with an Application to Interest rate Parity,"
97-5, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
- Siklos, Pierre L. & Granger, Clive W.J., 1997. "Regime-Sensitive Cointegration With An Application To Interest-Rate Parity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(03), pages 640-657, September.
- Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "On Markov error-correction models, with an application to stock prices and dividends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 69-88.
- Vicente Meneu & Hipolit Torro, .
"Asymmetric covariance in sport-future markets,"
Studies on the Spanish Economy
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
- Amir Alizadeh & Nikos Nomikos, 2004. "A Markov regime switching approach for hedging stock indices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 649-674, 07.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig & Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, .
"A Markov-Switching Vector Equilibrium Correction Model of the UK Labour Market,"
185, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2002. "A Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 233-254.
- Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mizon, Grayham E., 2000. "A Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0105, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
- Jae H. Min & Mohammad Najand, 1999. "A further investigation of the lead–lag relationship between the spot market and stock index futures: Early evidence from Korea," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 217-232, 04.
- Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr & Locke, Peter R & Yu, Wei, 1996.
"Index Arbitrage and Nonlinear Dynamics between the S&P 500 Futures and Cash,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 301-32.
- Gerald P. Dwyer & Peter Locke & Wei Yu, 1995. "Index arbitrage and nonlinear dynamics between the S&P 500 futures and cash," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 95-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2003.
"Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 261-295, June.
- Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2000. "Structural Changes in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 2000-20, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
- Ying‐Foon Chow, 1998. "Regime switching and cointegration tests of the efficiency of futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(8), pages 871-901, December.
- Davidson, James, 2004. "Forecasting Markov-switching dynamic, conditionally heteroscedastic processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 137-147, June.
- P. V. Viswanath, 1993. "Efficient use of information, convergence adjustments, and regression estimates of hedge ratios," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 43-53, 02.
- Abhay Abhyankar, 1998. "Linear and nonlinear Granger causality: Evidence from the U.K. stock index futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(5), pages 519-540, 08.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1987. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums,and the Theory of Storage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 55-73, January.
- Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2000. "The cost of carry model and regime shifts in stock index futures markets: An empirical investigation," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 603-624, 08.
- Param Silvapulle & Imad A. Moosa, 1999. "The relationship between spot and futures prices: Evidence from the crude oil market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 175-193, 04.
- Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S145-59, Supplemen.
- Jian Yang & David A. Bessler, 2004. "The International Price Transmission in Stock Index Futures Markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(3), pages 370-386, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:27:y:2008:i:8:p:649-669. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.