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Index Arbitrage and Nonlinear Dynamics between the S&P 500 Futures and Cash

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  • Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr
  • Locke, Peter R
  • Yu, Wei

Abstract

We use a cost of carry model with nonzero transaction costs to motivate estimation of a nonlinear dynamic relationship between the S&P 500 futures and cash indexes. Discontinuous arbitrage suggests that a threshold error correction mechanism may characterize many aspects of the relationship between the futures and cash indexes. We use minute-by-minute data on the S&P 500 futures and cash indexes. The results indicate that nonlinear dynamics are important and related to arbitrage, and suggest that arbitrage is associated with more rapid convergence of the basis to the cost of carry than would be indicated by a linear model. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr & Locke, Peter R & Yu, Wei, 1996. "Index Arbitrage and Nonlinear Dynamics between the S&P 500 Futures and Cash," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 301-332.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:9:y:1996:i:1:p:301-32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Arbitrage in Stock Index Futures," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 7-31, January.
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