IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/ijfexx/v03y2016i03ns2424786316500213.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trading VIX futures under mean reversion with regime switching

Author

Listed:
  • Jiao Li

    (APAM Department, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States)

Abstract

This paper studies the optimal VIX futures trading problems under a regime-switching model. We consider the VIX as mean reversion dynamics with dependence on the regime that switches among a finite number of states. For the trading strategies, we analyze the timings and sequences of the investor’s market participation, which leads to several corresponding coupled system of variational inequalities. The numerical approach is developed to solve these optimal double stopping problems by using projected-successive-over-relaxation (PSOR) method with Crank–Nicolson scheme. We illustrate the optimal boundaries via numerical examples of two-state Markov chain model. In particular, we examine the impacts of transaction costs and regime-switching timings on the VIX futures trading strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiao Li, 2016. "Trading VIX futures under mean reversion with regime switching," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-20, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijfexx:v:03:y:2016:i:03:n:s2424786316500213
    DOI: 10.1142/S2424786316500213
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2424786316500213
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S2424786316500213?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Min Dai & Yifei Zhong & Yue Kuen Kwok, 2011. "Optimal arbitrage strategies on stock index futures under position limits," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 394-406, April.
    2. Tim Leung & Jiao Li & Xin Li & Zheng Wang, 2016. "Speculative Futures Trading under Mean Reversion," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(4), pages 281-304, December.
    3. John Buffington & Robert J. Elliott, 2002. "American Options With Regime Switching," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(05), pages 497-514.
    4. David D. Yao & Qing Zhang & Xun Yu Zhou, 2006. "A Regime-Switching Model for European Options," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Houmin Yan & George Yin & Qing Zhang (ed.), Stochastic Processes, Optimization, and Control Theory: Applications in Financial Engineering, Queueing Networks, and Manufacturing Systems, chapter 0, pages 281-300, Springer.
    5. Tim Leung & Xin Li, 2016. "Optimal Mean Reversion Trading:Mathematical Analysis and Practical Applications," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9839, August.
    6. Tim Leung & Yoshihiro Shirai, 2015. "Optimal derivative liquidation timing under path-dependent risk penalties," Journal of Financial Engineering (JFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 1-32.
    7. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Arbitrage in Stock Index Futures," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 7-31, January.
    8. Tim Leung & Peng Liu, 2012. "Risk Premia And Optimal Liquidation Of Credit Derivatives," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(08), pages 1-34.
    9. Tim Leung & Xin Li & Zheng Wang, 2015. "Optimal Multiple Trading Times Under the Exponential OU Model with Transaction Costs," Papers 1504.04682, arXiv.org.
    10. Tim Leung & Xin Li, 2016. "Futures Trading Under Mean Reversion," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Optimal Mean Reversion Trading Mathematical Analysis and Practical Applications, chapter 5, pages 105-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Grunbichler, Andreas & Longstaff, Francis A., 1996. "Valuing futures and options on volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 985-1001, July.
    12. Tim Leung & Xin Li, 2015. "Optimal Mean Reversion Trading With Transaction Costs And Stop-Loss Exit," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 1-31.
    13. Mencía, Javier & Sentana, Enrique, 2013. "Valuation of VIX derivatives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 367-391.
    14. Tim Leung & Xin Li & Zheng Wang, 2014. "Optimal Starting-Stopping and Switching of a CIR Process with Fixed Costs," Papers 1411.6080, arXiv.org.
    15. A. Q. M. Khaliq & R. H. Liu, 2009. "New Numerical Scheme For Pricing American Option With Regime-Switching," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 319-340.
    16. Wilmott,Paul & Howison,Sam & Dewynne,Jeff, 1995. "The Mathematics of Financial Derivatives," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521497893, September.
    17. Tim Leung & Michael Ludkovski, 2010. "Optimal Timing to Purchase Options," Papers 1008.3650, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2011.
    18. Robert Elliott & Tak Siu & Leunglung Chan, 2008. "A PDE approach for risk measures for derivatives with regime switching," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 55-74, January.
    19. Zhiguang Wang & Robert T. Daigler, 2011. "The performance of VIX option pricing models: Empirical evidence beyond simulation," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 251-281, March.
    20. Dotsis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Skiadopoulos, George, 2007. "An empirical comparison of continuous-time models of implied volatility indices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3584-3603, December.
    21. Christian Stepanek, 2015. "Comparison of commodity future pricing approaches with cointegration techniques," Journal of Financial Engineering (JFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 1-31.
    22. Tim Leung & Kazutoshi Yamazaki, 2013. "American step-up and step-down default swaps under L�vy models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 137-157, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yerkin Kitapbayev & Tim Leung, 2018. "Mean Reversion Trading With Sequential Deadlines And Transaction Costs," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(01), pages 1-22, February.
    2. Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2018. "Dynamic Index Tracking and Risk Exposure Control Using Derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 180-212, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiao Li, 2016. "Trading VIX Futures under Mean Reversion with Regime Switching," Papers 1605.07945, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    2. Tim Leung & Jiao Li & Xin Li & Zheng Wang, 2016. "Speculative Futures Trading under Mean Reversion," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(4), pages 281-304, December.
    3. Yerkin Kitapbayev & Tim Leung, 2018. "Mean Reversion Trading With Sequential Deadlines And Transaction Costs," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(01), pages 1-22, February.
    4. Tim Leung & Jiao Li & Xin Li, 2018. "Optimal Timing to Trade along a Randomized Brownian Bridge," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-23, August.
    5. Yerkin Kitapbayev & Tim Leung, 2017. "Optimal mean-reverting spread trading: nonlinear integral equation approach," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 181-203, May.
    6. Guo, Kevin & Leung, Tim, 2017. "Understanding the non-convergence of agricultural futures via stochastic storage costs and timing options," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 32-49.
    7. Hongzhong Zhang, 2018. "Stochastic Drawdowns," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 10078, August.
    8. Tim Leung & Hongzhong Zhang, 2017. "Optimal Trading with a Trailing Stop," Papers 1701.03960, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.
    9. Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2020. "Tracking VIX with VIX Futures: Portfolio Construction and Performance," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John B Guerard & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF APPLIED INVESTMENT RESEARCH, chapter 21, pages 557-596, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Bahman Angoshtari & Tim Leung, 2020. "Optimal trading of a basket of futures contracts," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 253-280, June.
    11. Tim Leung & Raphael Yan, 2018. "Optimal dynamic pairs trading of futures under a two-factor mean-reverting model," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 1-23, September.
    12. Tim Leung & Zheng Wang, 2019. "Optimal risk-averse timing of an asset sale: trending versus mean-reverting price dynamics," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28, March.
    13. Tim Leung & Yang Zhou, 2019. "Optimal dynamic futures portfolio in a regime-switching market framework," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-27, December.
    14. Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2018. "Dynamic Index Tracking and Risk Exposure Control Using Derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 180-212, March.
    15. Huang, Hung-Hsi & Lin, Shin-Hung & Wang, Chiu-Ping, 2019. "Reasonable evaluation of VIX options for the Taiwan stock index," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 111-130.
    16. Tim Leung & Zheng Wang, 2016. "Optimal Risk-Averse Timing of an Asset Sale: Trending vs Mean-Reverting Price Dynamics," Papers 1610.08143, arXiv.org.
    17. Gonzalez-Perez, Maria T., 2015. "Model-free volatility indexes in the financial literature: A review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 141-159.
    18. Tim Leung & Yang Zhou, 2020. "Optimal dynamic futures portfolio in a regime-switching market framework," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-27, February.
    19. Bujar Huskaj & Marcus Nossman, 2013. "A Term Structure Model for VIX Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 421-442, May.
    20. Kozarski, R., 2013. "Pricing and hedging in the VIX derivative market," Other publications TiSEM 221fefe0-241e-4914-b6bd-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:ijfexx:v:03:y:2016:i:03:n:s2424786316500213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscientific.com/worldscinet/ijfe .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.