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Speculative Futures Trading under Mean Reversion

Author

Listed:
  • Tim Leung
  • Jiao Li
  • Xin Li
  • Zheng Wang

Abstract

This paper studies the problem of trading futures with transaction costs when the underlying spot price is mean-reverting. Specifically, we model the spot dynamics by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU), Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR), or exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (XOU) model. The futures term structure is derived and its connection to futures price dynamics is examined. For each futures contract, we describe the evolution of the roll yield, and compute explicitly the expected roll yield. For the futures trading problem, we incorporate the investor's timing option to enter or exit the market, as well as a chooser option to long or short a futures upon entry. This leads us to formulate and solve the corresponding optimal double stopping problems to determine the optimal trading strategies. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the optimal entry and exit boundaries under different models. We find that the option to choose between a long or short position induces the investor to delay market entry, as compared to the case where the investor pre-commits to go either long or short.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Leung & Jiao Li & Xin Li & Zheng Wang, 2016. "Speculative Futures Trading under Mean Reversion," Papers 1601.04210, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1601.04210
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scott H. Irwin & Carl R. Zulauf & Thomas E. Jackson, 1996. "Monte Carlo Analysis of Mean Reversion in Commodity Futures Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 387-399.
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    11. Tim Leung & Yoshihiro Shirai, 2015. "Optimal derivative liquidation timing under path-dependent risk penalties," Journal of Financial Engineering (JFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(01), pages 1-32.
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    13. Tim Leung & Peng Liu, 2012. "Risk Premia And Optimal Liquidation Of Credit Derivatives," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(08), pages 1-34.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2019. "Tracking VIX with VIX Futures: Portfolio Construction and Performance," Papers 1907.00293, arXiv.org.
    2. repec:gam:jijfss:v:6:y:2018:i:3:p:75-:d:166614 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jiao Li, 2016. "Trading VIX Futures under Mean Reversion with Regime Switching," Papers 1605.07945, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    4. repec:wsi:ijfexx:v:06:y:2019:i:01:n:s2424786319500051 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eee:jocoma:v:6:y:2017:i:c:p:32-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:wsi:ijtafx:v:21:y:2018:i:01:n:s0219024918500048 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jiao Li, 2016. "Trading VIX futures under mean reversion with regime switching," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-20, September.
    8. Tim Leung & Jiao Li & Xin Li, 2018. "Optimal Timing to Trade along a Randomized Brownian Bridge," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(3), pages 1-23, August.
    9. Yerkin Kitapbayev & Tim Leung, 2017. "Optimal mean-reverting spread trading: nonlinear integral equation approach," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 181-203, May.
    10. repec:wsi:ijfexx:v:05:y:2018:i:03:n:s2424786318500275 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Guo, Kevin & Leung, Tim, 2017. "Understanding the non-convergence of agricultural futures via stochastic storage costs and timing options," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 32-49.
    12. Tim Leung & Raphael Yan, 2019. "A stochastic control approach to managed futures portfolios," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-22, March.
    13. repec:eee:ecofin:v:47:y:2019:i:c:p:365-379 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Yerkin Kitapbayev & Tim Leung, 2018. "Mean Reversion Trading With Sequential Deadlines And Transaction Costs," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(01), pages 1-22, February.

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