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Price Mean Reversion, Seasonality, and Options Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Chad E. Hart
  • Sergio H. Lence
  • Dermot J. Hayes
  • Na Jin

Abstract

Options on agricultural commodities with maturities exceeding one year seldom trade. One possible reason to explain this lack of trading is that we do not have an accurate option pricing model for products where mean reversion in spot-price levels can be expected. Standard option pricing models assume proportionality between price variance and time to maturity. This proportionality is not a valid assumption for commodities whose supply response brings prices back to production costs. The model proposed here incorporates mean reversion in spot-price levels and includes a correction for seasonality. Mean reversion and seasonality are both observed in the soybean market. The empirical analysis lends strong support to the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Chad E. Hart & Sergio H. Lence & Dermot J. Hayes & Na Jin, 2016. "Price Mean Reversion, Seasonality, and Options Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(3), pages 707-725.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:98:y:2016:i:3:p:707-725.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ajae/aav045
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    Cited by:

    1. Eoin McGuirk & Marshall Burke, 2020. "The Economic Origins of Conflict in Africa," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(10), pages 3940-3997.
    2. Suryadeepto Nag & Sankarshan Basu & Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty, 2022. "Modeling the Commodity Prices of Base Metals in Indian Commodity Market Using a Higher Order Markovian Approach," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(1), pages 159-171, March.
    3. Joshua G. Maples & B. Wade Brorsen, 2022. "Handling the discontinuity in futures prices when time series modeling of commodity cash and futures prices," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(2), pages 139-152, June.
    4. Peter Slade, 2021. "The impact of price hedging on subsidized insurance: Evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(4), pages 447-464, December.
    5. Chih-Chen Hsu & An-Sing Chen & Shih-Kuei Lin & Ting-Fu Chen, 2017. "The affine styled-facts price dynamics for the natural gas: evidence from daily returns and option prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 819-848, April.
    6. Truong, Chi & Trueck, Stefan & Pitt, David & Best, Rohan, 2025. "Seasonality and valuation of renewable energy projects in a two factor model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 389(C).

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