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Price discovery in spot and futures markets: A reconsideration

  • Theissen, Erik

We reconsider the issue of price discovery in spot and futures markets. We use a threshold error correction model to allow for arbitrage operations to have an impact on the return dynamics. We estimate the model using quote midpoints, and we modify the model to account for time-varying transaction costs. We find that the futures market leads in the process of price discovery. The lead of the futures market is more pronounced in the presence of arbitrage signals. Thus, when the deviation between the spot and the futures market is large, the spot market tends to adjust to the futures market.

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Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2009/27.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200927
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  1. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Arbitrage in Stock Index Futures," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages S7-31, January.
  2. Lehmann, Bruce N., 2002. "Some desiderata for the measurement of price discovery across markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 259-276, July.
  3. Kempf, Alexander & Korn, Olaf, 1998. "Trading System and Market Integration," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 220-239, July.
  4. Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. & Peter Locke & Wei Yu, 1995. "Index arbitrage and nonlinear dynamics between the S&P 500 futures and cash," Working Paper 95-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Terrence Hendershott & Charles M. Jones, 2005. "Island Goes Dark: Transparency, Fragmentation, and Regulation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 743-793.
  6. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. " One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-99, September.
  7. Yan, Bingcheng & Zivot, Eric, 2010. "A structural analysis of price discovery measures," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-19, February.
  8. Martin Martens & Paul Kofman & Ton C. F. Vorst, 1998. "A threshold error-correction model for intraday futures and index returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 245-263.
  9. Harris, Frederick H. deB. & McInish, Thomas H. & Wood, Robert A., 2002. "Common factor components versus information shares: a reply," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 341-348, July.
  10. de Jong, Frank, 2002. "Measures of contributions to price discovery: a comparison," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 323-327, July.
  11. Thorsten Freihube & Erik Theissen, 2001. "An Index Is An Index Is An Index?," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 53(4), pages 295-320, October.
  12. G. Geoffrey Booth & Ji-Chai Lin & Teppo Martikainen & Yiuman Tse, 2002. "Trading and Pricing in Upstairs and Downstairs Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1111-1135.
  13. Erik Theissen, 2001. "Price Discovery in Floor and Screen Trading Systems," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse35_2001, University of Bonn, Germany.
  14. Joel Hasbrouck, 2003. "Intraday Price Formation in U.S. Equity Index Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2375-2400, December.
  15. Yiuman Tse & Paramita Bandyopadhyay & Yang-Pin Shen, 2006. "Intraday Price Discovery in the DJIA Index Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9-10), pages 1572-1585.
  16. Berkman, Henk & Brailsford, Tim & Frino, Alex, 2005. "A note on execution costs for stock index futures: Information versus liquidity effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 565-577, March.
  17. Jokivuolle, Esa, 1995. "Measuring True Stock Index Value in the Presence of Infrequent Trading," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(03), pages 455-464, September.
  18. Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  19. Pradeep K. Yadav & Peter F. Pope & Krishna Paudyal, 1994. "Threshold Autoregressive Modeling In Finance: The Price Differences Of Equivalent Assets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 205-221.
  20. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 441-468, December.
  21. Grunbichler Andreas & Longstaff Francis A. & Schwartz Eduardo S., 1994. "Electronic Screen Trading and the Transmission of Information: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 166-187, March.
  22. Tse, Yiuman, 2001. "Index arbitrage with heterogeneous investors: A smooth transition error correction analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1829-1855, October.
  23. Baillie, Richard T. & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Tse, Yiuman & Zabotina, Tatyana, 2002. "Price discovery and common factor models," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-321, July.
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