A partially linear approach to modelling the dynamics of spot and futures prices
In this paper we consider the dynamics of spot and futures prices in the presence of arbitrage. We propose a partially linear error correction model where the adjustment coefficient is allowed to depend non-linearly on the lagged price difference. We estimate our model using data on the DAX index and the DAX futures contract. We find that the adjustment is indeed nonlinear. The linear alternative is rejected. The speed of price adjustment is increasing almost monotonically with the magnitude of the price difference.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: House of Finance, Grüneburgplatz 1, HPF H5, D-60323 Frankfurt am Main|
Phone: +49 (0)69 798-30050
Fax: +49 (0)69 798-30077
Web page: http://www.ifk-cfs.de/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- G. Geoffrey Booth & Ji-Chai Lin & Teppo Martikainen & Yiuman Tse, 2002. "Trading and Pricing in Upstairs and Downstairs Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1111-1135.
- Erik Theissen, 2001.
"Price Discovery in Floor and Screen Trading Systems,"
Bonn Econ Discussion Papers
bgse35_2001, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Theissen, Erik, 2002. "Price discovery in floor and screen trading systems," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 455-474, November.
- Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-54, July.
- Nick Taylor & Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses & André Lucas, 1999.
"SETS, Arbitrage Activity, and Stock Price Dynamics,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
99-003/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Taylor, Nick & Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 2000. "SETS, arbitrage activity, and stock price dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1289-1306, August.
- McDonald, Robert L, 2001. "Cross-Border Investing with Tax Arbitrage: The Case of German Dividend Tax Credits," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 617-57.
- Pradeep K. Yadav & Peter F. Pope & Krishna Paudyal, 1994. "Threshold Autoregressive Modeling In Finance: The Price Differences Of Equivalent Assets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 205-221.
- John Xu Zheng, 1996. "A consistent test of functional form via nonparametric estimation techniques," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 263-289, December.
- Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 441-468, December.
- Tse, Yiuman, 2001. "Index arbitrage with heterogeneous investors: A smooth transition error correction analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1829-1855, October.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Harris, Frederick H. deB. & McInish, Thomas H. & Wood, Robert A., 2002. "Common factor components versus information shares: a reply," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 341-348, July.
- Martin Martens & Paul Kofman & Ton C. F. Vorst, 1998.
"A threshold error-correction model for intraday futures and index returns,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 245-263.
- Martens, M. & Kofman, P. & Vorst, T.C.F., 1995. "A Threshold Error Correction Model for Intraday Futures and Index Returns," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/95, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr & Locke, Peter R & Yu, Wei, 1996.
"Index Arbitrage and Nonlinear Dynamics between the S&P 500 Futures and Cash,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 301-32.
- Gerald P. Dwyer & Peter Locke & Wei Yu, 1995. "Index arbitrage and nonlinear dynamics between the S&P 500 futures and cash," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 95-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002.
"Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen/Seo paper on threshold cointegration," Statistical Software Components RTZ00092, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Richard Roll & Eduardo Schwartz & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2007. "Liquidity and the Law of One Price: The Case of the Futures-Cash Basis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2201-2234, October.
- Li, Q. & Wang, Suojin, 1998. "A simple consistent bootstrap test for a parametric regression function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 145-165, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200812. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.