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A New Econometric Model Of Index Arbitrage

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  • Nicholas Taylor

Abstract

This paper introduces a new econometric model of the mispricing associated with (contemporaneous) differences between spot and futures prices. Like existing models, this model assumes that the level of arbitrage activity is positively related to the magnitude of absolute mispricing. However, unlike existing models, the new model assumes that a parameter governing a key feature of this relationship varies over time. Specifically, several versions of a smooth transition model of mispricing are introduced that each allow the shape of the transition function to be determined by a set of explanatory variables. Using high frequency data from the S&P 500 spot and futures market, the results show that the nature of the non‐linearity in mispricing corresponds to arbitrageur behaviour that varies (in a periodic fashion) over the trading day. This is evinced by the superior fit of the new model of mispricing, in comparison to the results based on existing econometric models of mispricing. Finally, the observed periodicity in arbitrageur behaviour indicates that arbitrageurs prefer to trade during certain periods within the trading day – a result that contradicts the findings obtained when using existing econometric models of mispricing.
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Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Taylor, 2004. "A New Econometric Model Of Index Arbitrage," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 69, Royal Economic Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2004:69
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    2. Jieye Qin & Christopher J. Green & Kavita Sirichand, 2019. "Determinants of Nikkei futures mispricing in international markets: Dividend clustering, currency risk, and transaction costs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(10), pages 1269-1300, October.
    3. Laurent Deville & Carole Gresse & Béatrice de Séverac, 2014. "Direct and Indirect Effects of Index ETFs on Spot†Futures Pricing and Liquidity: Evidence from the CAC 40 Index," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(2), pages 352-373, March.
    4. Charlie X. Cai & Qi Zhang, 2016. "High†Frequency Exchange Rate Forecasting," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(1), pages 120-141, January.
    5. Yu‐Lun Chen & Yen‐Hsien Lee & Robin K. Chou & Ya‐Kai Chang, 2021. "Arbitrage trading and price discovery of the regular and mini Taiwan stock index futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 926-948, June.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7689 is not listed on IDEAS

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