Information contents misjudged: Digressive convergence to equilibrium in cointegrated prices
The spot price on the Taiwan stock index is richer in information than the futures price judged by the price discovery measures of Gonzalo and Granger [Gonzalo, J., & Granger, C.W.J. (1995). Estimation of common long-memory components in cointegrated systems. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 27-35.] and Hasbrouck [Hasbrouck, J. (1995). One security, many markets: Determining the contributions to price discovery. Journal of Finance, 50, 1175-1199.]. What is special about the markets is that both the spot and futures error-correction coefficients are positive, implying a digressive convergence to their long-run equilibrium in the error-correction (EC) process. Innovation accounting suggests that the cause of this digressive equilibrium adjustment is that investors systematically overreact to news in the less informative futures market but under-react to the more informative spot market. Our contribution is in identifying the digressive convergence implied by same-sign EC coefficients, comparing it to the normal convergence widely found in opposite-sign EC models, and providing short-run mispricing interpretations for both types of convergence to equilibrium.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fong, Kingsley & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2003. "How much do locals contribute to the price discovery process?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 305-320, May.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995.
"Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
- Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Gonzalo and Granger JBES 1995 paper," Statistical Software Components RTZ00074, Boston College Department of Economics.
- de Jong, Frank, 2002. "Measures of contributions to price discovery: a comparison," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 323-327, July.
- Kate Phylaktis & Gikas Manalis, 2005. "Price transmission dynamics between informationally linked securities," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 187-201.
- deB. Harris, Frederick H. & McInish, Thomas H. & Shoesmith, Gary L. & Wood, Robert A., 1995. "Cointegration, Error Correction, and Price Discovery on Informationally Linked Security Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(04), pages 563-579, December.
- Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-297, May.
- Tse, Yiuman & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Booth, G. Geoffrey, 1996. "The international transmission of information in Eurodollar futures markets: a continuously trading market hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 447-465, June.
- Zhong, Maosen & Darrat, Ali F. & Otero, Rafael, 2004. "Price discovery and volatility spillovers in index futures markets: Some evidence from Mexico," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 3037-3054, December.
- Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. " One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-1199, September.
- Theissen, Erik, 2002. "Price discovery in floor and screen trading systems," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 455-474, November.
- Erik Theissen, 2001. "Price Discovery in Floor and Screen Trading Systems," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse35_2001, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 441-468, December.
- Yiuman Tse & Grigori Erenburg, 2003. "Competition For Order Flow, Market Quality, And Price Discovery In The Nasdaq 100 Index Tracking Stock," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 26(3), pages 301-318.
- Su, Qian & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2007. "Determining the contributions to price discovery for Chinese cross-listed stocks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 140-153, April.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
- Harris, Frederick H. deB. & McInish, Thomas H. & Wood, Robert A., 2002. "Common factor components versus information shares: a reply," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 341-348, July.
- Kim, Ki-ho, 2003. "Dollar exchange rate and stock price: evidence from multivariate cointegration and error correction model," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 301-313.
- Foster, Andrew J., 1996. "Price discovery in oil markets: a time varying analysis of the 1990-1991 Gulf conflict," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 231-246, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)