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A partially linear approach to modelling the dynamics of spot and futures prices

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  • Gaul, Jürgen
  • Theissen, Erik

Abstract

This paper considers the dynamics of spot and futures prices in the presence of arbitrage. A partially linear error correction model is proposed where the adjustment coefficient is allowed to depend non-linearly on the lagged price difference. The model is estimated using data on the DAX index and the DAX futures contract. We find that the adjustment is indeed nonlinear. The linear alternative is rejected. The speed of price adjustment is increasing almost monotonically with the magnitude of the price difference.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaul, Jürgen & Theissen, Erik, 2012. "A partially linear approach to modelling the dynamics of spot and futures prices," CFR Working Papers 13-01, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1301
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    2. Ters, Kristyna & Urban, Jörg, 2020. "Estimating unknown arbitrage costs: Evidence from a 3-regime threshold vector error correction model," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    3. Chen, Yu-Lun & Tsai, Wei-Che, 2017. "Determinants of price discovery in the VIX futures market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-73.
    4. Fei Ren & Mei-Ling Cai & Sai-Ping Li & Xiong Xiong & Zhang-HangJian Chen, 2023. "A Multi-market Comparison of the Intraday Lead–Lag Relations Among Stock Index-Based Spot, Futures and Options," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(1), pages 1-28, June.
    5. Mike Buckle & Jing Chen & Qian Guo & Xiaoxi Li, 2019. "The impact of multilateral trading facilities on price discovery: Further evidence from the European markets," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 321-343, November.
    6. Xu Guo & Tao Wang & Lixing Zhu, 2016. "Model checking for parametric single-index models: a dimension reduction model-adaptive approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(5), pages 1013-1035, November.
    7. Ihle, Rico & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2016. "Semiparametric insights into price dynamics in Tanzanian maize markets," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 249329, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    8. Khalid Ul Islam & Umer Mushtaq Lone & Younis Ahmed Gulam & Suhail Ahmad Bhat, 2025. "Dynamic Linkages and Temporal Relationships Between Spot and Future Index Prices: Empirical Evidence from India Using Non-linear GARCH–BEKK," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 32(2), pages 609-630, June.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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