IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkm/wpaper/072007.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Order Imbalance and the Dynamics of Index and Futures Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph K.W. Fung

    (Hong Kong Baptist University)

  • Philip Yu

    (University of Hong Kong)

Abstract

This study uses transaction records of index futures and the index stocks, with bid/ask price quotes, to examine the impact of stock market order imbalance on the dynamic behavior of index futures and cash index prices. Spurious correlation in the index is purged by using an estimate of the "true" index with highly synchronous and active quotes of individual stocks. A smooth transition autoregressive errorcorrection model (STAECM) is used to describe the nonlinear dynamics of the index and futures prices. Order imbalance in the cash stock market is found to significantly affect the error-correction dynamics of index and futures prices. Order imbalance impedes error-correction particularly when the market impact of order imbalance works against the error-correction force of the cash index, explaining why real potential arbitrage opportunity may persist over some time. Incorporating order imbalance in the framework significantly improves its explanatory power. The findings indicate that a stock market microstructure that allows a quick resolution of order imbalance promotes dynamic arbitrage efficiency between futures and the underlying stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph K.W. Fung & Philip Yu, 2007. "Order Imbalance and the Dynamics of Index and Futures Prices," Working Papers 072007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:072007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/190/ub_full_0_2_149_hkimr-no7_bw.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chan, Kalok & Fong, Wai-Ming, 2000. "Trade size, order imbalance, and the volatility-volume relation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 247-273, August.
    2. Taylor, Nick & Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 2000. "SETS, arbitrage activity, and stock price dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1289-1306, August.
    3. Grossman, Sanford J, 1988. "An Analysis of the Implications for Stock and Futures Price Volatility of Program Trading and Dynamic Hedging Strategies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(3), pages 275-298, July.
    4. Miller, Merton H & Muthuswamy, Jayaram & Whaley, Robert E, 1994. " Mean Reversion of Standard & Poor's 500 Index Basis Changes: Arbitrage-Induced or Statistical Illusion?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 479-513, June.
    5. Joseph K. W. Fung & Li Jiang, 1999. "Restrictions on Short-Selling and Spot-Futures Dynamics," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1-2), pages 227-248.
    6. Neal, Robert, 1996. "Direct Tests of Index Arbitrage Models," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(04), pages 541-562, December.
    7. Kleidon, Allan W, 1992. "Arbitrage, Nontrading, and Stale Prices: October 1987," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(4), pages 483-507, October.
    8. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2002. "Order imbalance, liquidity, and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 111-130, July.
    9. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-297, May.
    10. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
    11. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. " The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    12. Dwyer, Gerald P, Jr & Locke, Peter R & Yu, Wei, 1996. "Index Arbitrage and Nonlinear Dynamics between the S&P 500 Futures and Cash," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 301-332.
    13. Lease, Ronald C & Masulis, Ronald W & Page, John R, 1991. " An Investigation of Market Microstructure Impacts on Event Study Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1523-1536, September.
    14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    15. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 441-468, December.
    16. Cornell, Bradford & French, Kenneth R, 1983. " Taxes and the Pricing of Stock Index Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 675-694, June.
    17. Locke, P R & Sayers, C L, 1993. "Intra-day Futures Price Volatility: Information Effects and Variance Persistence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 15-30, Jan.-Marc.
    18. William J. Breen & Laurie Simon Hodrick & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2002. "Predicting Equity Liquidity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(4), pages 470-483, April.
    19. David Easley & Maureen O'Hara & P.S. Srinivas, 1998. "Option Volume and Stock Prices: Evidence on Where Informed Traders Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 431-465, April.
    20. Tse, Yiuman, 2001. "Index arbitrage with heterogeneous investors: A smooth transition error correction analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1829-1855, October.
    21. A. Craig MacKinlay, Krishna Ramaswamy, 1988. "Index-Futures Arbitrage and the Behavior of Stock Index Futures Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(2), pages 137-158.
    22. Kleidon, Allan W & Whaley, Robert E, 1992. " One Market? Stocks, Futures, and Options during October 1987," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 851-877, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Xiaolin & Ye, Qiang & Zhao, Feng, 2016. "Trading activity and price behavior in Chinese agricultural futures markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 52-59.
    2. Lam, Kin & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2016. "Stochastic Dominance and Investors’ Behavior towards Risk: The Hong Kong Stocks and Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 74386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. repec:spr:empeco:v:52:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1115-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Chen, Chen & Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Liao, Tzu-Hsiang, 2016. "Risk-neutral skewness and market returns: The role of institutional investor sentiment in the futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 203-225.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:072007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (HKIMR). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/hkimrhk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.