IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/74386.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stochastic Dominance and Investors’ Behavior towards Risk: The Hong Kong Stocks and Futures Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Lam, Kin
  • Lean, Hooi Hooi
  • Wong, Wing-Keung

Abstract

This paper applies stochastic dominance (SD) tests to examine the dominance relationships between the futures and spot markets in Hong Kong. We also analyze the preferences for the risk averters, risk seekers, prospect investors, and Markowitz investors with further in dept of their positive and negative domains in these markets. We find that for the risk averters, spot dominates futures while for the risk seekers, futures dominate spot. This implies that the risk averters prefer to buy indexed stocks, while risk seekers are attracted to long index futures to maximize their expected utilities, but not necessary their wealth. We also conclude that in general, the prospect investors prefer spot in the positive domain and prefer futures in the negative domain while the Markowitz investors prefer spot in the negative domain and prefer futures in the positive domain.

Suggested Citation

  • Lam, Kin & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2016. "Stochastic Dominance and Investors’ Behavior towards Risk: The Hong Kong Stocks and Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 74386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:74386
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74386/1/MPRA_paper_74386.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhuo Qiao & Ephraim Clark & Wing-Keung Wong, 2014. "Investors’ preference towards risk: evidence from the Taiwan stock and stock index futures markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 54(1), pages 251-274, March.
    2. Roger Hartley & Lisa Farrell, 2002. "Can Expected Utility Theory Explain Gambling?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 613-624, June.
    3. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    4. Joseph K. W. Fung & Paul Draper, 1999. "Mispricing of index futures contracts and short sales constraints," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 695-715, September.
    5. Kyriacos Kyriacou & Lucio Sarno, 1999. "The temporal relationship between derivatives trading and spot market volatility in the U.K.: Empirical analysis and Monte Carlo evidence," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 245-270, May.
    6. Joseph K.W. Fung & Philip Yu, 2007. "Order Imbalance and the Dynamics of Index and Futures Prices," Working Papers 072007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    7. Moshe Levy & Haim Levy, 2013. "Prospect Theory: Much Ado About Nothing?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 7, pages 129-144, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Chan, Chia-Ying & de Peretti, Christian & Qiao, Zhuo & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2012. "Empirical test of the efficiency of the UK covered warrants market: Stochastic dominance and likelihood ratio test approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 162-174.
    9. Joseph K. W. Fung & Louis T. W. Cheng & Kam C. Chan, 1997. "The intraday pricing efficiency of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index options and futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(7), pages 797-815, October.
    10. Porter, R Burr & Gaumnitz, Jabk E, 1972. "Stochastic Dominance vs. Mean-Variance Portfolio Analysis: An Empirical Evaluation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(3), pages 438-446, June.
    11. Russell Davidson & Jean-Yves Duclos, 2000. "Statistical Inference for Stochastic Dominance and for the Measurement of Poverty and Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1435-1464, November.
    12. Dominic Gasbarro & Wing-Keung Wong & J. Kenton Zumwalt, 2007. "Stochastic Dominance Analysis of iShares," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 89-101.
    13. Haim Levy, 2004. "Prospect Theory and Mean-Variance Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 1015-1041.
    14. Zhidong Bai & Hua Li & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2015. "Stochastic dominance statistics for risk averters and risk seekers: an analysis of stock preferences for USA and China," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 889-900, May.
    15. Bhargava, Vivek & Brooks, Robert, 2002. "Exploration of the role of expectations in foreign exchange risk management," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 171-189, April.
    16. Wee Ching Pok & Sunil Poshakwale, 2004. "The impact of the introduction of futures contracts on the spot market volatility: the case of Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 143-154.
    17. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Egozcue, Martin & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2010. "Gains from diversification on convex combinations: A majorization and stochastic dominance approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(3), pages 893-900, February.
    19. Anderson, Gordon, 2004. "Toward an empirical analysis of polarization," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 1-26, September.
    20. Wong, Wing-Keung, 2007. "Stochastic dominance and mean-variance measures of profit and loss for business planning and investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 829-843, October.
    21. Wong, Wing-Keung & Phoon, Kok Fai & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2008. "Stochastic dominance analysis of Asian hedge funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 204-223, June.
    22. Moshe Leshno & Haim Levy, 2002. "Preferred by "All" and Preferred by "Most" Decision Makers: Almost Stochastic Dominance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1074-1085, August.
    23. Dominic Gasbarro & Wing-Keung Wong & J. Kenton Zumwalt, 2007. "Stochastic Dominance Analysis of iShares," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 89-101.
    24. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2007. "Revisiting calendar anomalies in Asian stock markets using a stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 125-141, April.
    25. Robert Brooks, 1991. "Analyzing portfolios with derivative assets: A stochastic dominance approach using numerical integration," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 411-440, August.
    26. Ephraim Clark & Zhuo Qiao & Wing-Keung Wong, 2016. "Theories Of Risk: Testing Investor Behavior On The Taiwan Stock And Stock Index Futures Markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(2), pages 907-924, April.
    27. Robert Brooks, 1989. "Investment decision making with index futures and index futures options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 143-162, April.
    28. Lean, Hooi-Hooi & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhang, Xibin, 2008. "The sizes and powers of some stochastic dominance tests: A Monte Carlo study for correlated and heteroskedastic distributions," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 30-48.
    29. Wing-Keung Wong & Chenghu Ma, 2008. "Preferences over location-scale family," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 37(1), pages 119-146, October.
    30. Oliver Linton & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2005. "Consistent Testing for Stochastic Dominance under General Sampling Schemes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 735-765.
    31. Sung C. Bae & Taek Ho Kwon & Jong Won Park, 2004. "Futures trading, spot market volatility, and market efficiency: The case of the Korean index futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(12), pages 1195-1228, December.
    32. Wong, Wing-Keung & Li, Chi-Kwong, 1999. "A note on convex stochastic dominance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 293-300, March.
    33. Garry F. Barrett & Stephen G. Donald, 2003. "Consistent Tests for Stochastic Dominance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 71-104, January.
    34. James P. Quirk & Rubin Saposnik, 1962. "Admissibility and Measurable Utility Functions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 29(2), pages 140-146.
    35. Thierry Post & Haim Levy, 2005. "Does Risk Seeking Drive Stock Prices? A Stochastic Dominance Analysis of Aggregate Investor Preferences and Beliefs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 925-953.
    36. Booth, James R. & Tehranian, Hassan & Trennepohl, Gary L., 1985. "Efficiency Analysis and Option Portfolio Selection," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 435-450, December.
    37. Richard H. Thaler & Eric J. Johnson, 1990. "Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(6), pages 643-660, June.
    38. John S. Hammond, III, 1974. "Simplifying the Choice between Uncertain Prospects Where Preference is Nonlinear," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(7), pages 1047-1072, March.
    39. Gary L. Trennepohl & James R. Booth & Hassan Tehranian, 1988. "An Empirical Analysis Of Insured Portfolio Strategies Using Listed Options," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, March.
    40. Conover, James A. & Dubofsky, David A., 1995. "Efficient Selection of Insured Currency Positions: Protective Puts vs. Fiduciary Calls," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 295-312, June.
    41. Hadar, Josef & Russell, William R, 1969. "Rules for Ordering Uncertain Prospects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 25-34, March.
    42. Guo, Xu & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2016. "Multivariate Stochastic Dominance for Risk Averters and Risk Seekers," MPRA Paper 70637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    43. Zhidong Bai & Hua Li & Huixia Liu & Wing‐Keung Wong, 2011. "Test statistics for prospect and Markowitz stochastic dominances with applications," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(2), pages 278-303, July.
    44. Fong, Wai Mun & Wong, Wing Keung & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2005. "International momentum strategies: a stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 89-109, February.
    45. Stoll, Hans R. & Whaley, Robert E., 1990. "The Dynamics of Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(4), pages 441-468, December.
    46. Fong, Wai Mun & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Wong, Wing Keung, 2008. "Stochastic dominance and behavior towards risk: The market for Internet stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 194-208, October.
    47. Porter, R. Burr, 1973. "An Empirical Comparison of Stochastic Dominance and Mean-Variance Portfolio Choice Criteria," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 587-608, September.
    48. Louis T. W. Cheng & Joseph K. W. Fung & Kam C. Chan, 2000. "Pricing dynamics of index options and index futures in Hong Kong before and during the Asian financial crisis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 145-166, February.
    49. Qiao, Zhuo & Wong, Wing-Keung & Fung, Joseph K.W., 2013. "Stochastic dominance relationships between stock and stock index futures markets: International evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 552-559.
    50. Lam, Kin & Liu, Taisheng & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2010. "A pseudo-Bayesian model in financial decision making with implications to market volatility, under- and overreaction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 166-175, May.
    51. Levy, Haim & Wiener, Zvi, 1998. "Stochastic Dominance and Prospect Dominance with Subjective Weighting Functions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 147-163, May-June.
    52. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 2001. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 1-53.
    53. Raymond W. So & Yiuman Tse, 2004. "Price discovery in the hang seng index markets: Index, futures, and the tracker fund," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(9), pages 887-907, September.
    54. Wong, Wing-Keung, 2007. "Stochastic dominance and mean-variance measures of profit and loss for business planning and investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 829-843, October.
    55. Brooks, Robert, 1989. "Investment Decision Making with Derivative Securities," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 511-527, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nguyen Huu Hau & Tran Trung Tinh & Hoa Anh Tuong & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "Review of Matrix Theory with Applications in Education and Decision Sciences," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(1), pages 28-69, March.
    2. Courage Ose Eburajolo & Sunday Oseiweh Ogbeide, 2021. "An Empirical Analysis of Stochastic Dominance and Portfolio Selection in the Stock Market: Evidence from Nigeria," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 4, pages 412-428.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhihui Lv & Amanda M. Y. Chu & Wing Keung Wong & Thomas C. Chiang, 2021. "The maximum-return-and-minimum-volatility effect: evidence from choosing risky and riskless assets to form a portfolio," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(1), pages 97-122, June.
    2. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2018. "Decision Sciences, Economics, Finance, Business, Computing, and Big Data: Connections," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-024/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2018. "Decision Sciences, Economics, Finance, Business, Computing, And Big Data: Connections," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 22(1), pages 36-94, December.
    4. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2018. "Big Data, Computational Science, Economics, Finance, Marketing, Management, and Psychology: Connections," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, March.
    5. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2016. "Management science, economics and finance: A connection," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2016-07, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    6. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2018. "Big Data, Computational Science, Economics, Finance, Marketing, Management, and Psychology: Connections," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(1), pages 1-29, March.
    7. Hooi Hooi Lean & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2013. "Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-31, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, revised Aug 2013.
    8. Ephraim Clark & Zhuo Qiao & Wing-Keung Wong, 2016. "Theories Of Risk: Testing Investor Behavior On The Taiwan Stock And Stock Index Futures Markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(2), pages 907-924, April.
    9. Zhidong Bai & Hua Li & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2015. "Stochastic dominance statistics for risk averters and risk seekers: an analysis of stock preferences for USA and China," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 889-900, May.
    10. Raymond H. Chan & Ephraim Clark & Xu Guo & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "New development on the third-order stochastic dominance for risk-averse and risk-seeking investors with application in risk management," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(2), pages 108-132, June.
    11. Kim-Hung Pho & Tuan-Kiet Tran & Thi Diem-Chinh Ho & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Optimal Solution Techniques in Decision Sciences A Review," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(1), pages 114-161, March.
    12. Lean, Hooi Hooi & McAleer, Michael & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2015. "Preferences of risk-averse and risk-seeking investors for oil spot and futures before, during and after the Global Financial Crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 204-216.
    13. Lean, H.H. & McAleer, M.J. & Wong, W.-K., 2010. "Investor preferences for oil spot and futures based on mean-variance and stochastic dominance," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-37, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    14. Kim-Hung Pho & Thi Diem-Chinh Ho & Tuan-Kiet Tran & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Moment Generating Function, Expectation And Variance Of Ubiquitous Distributions With Applications In Decision Sciences: A Review," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(2), pages 65-150, June.
    15. Hooi Hooi Lean & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2010. "Market Efficiency of Oil Spot and Futures: A Stochastic Dominance Approach," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-705, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    16. Chan, Raymond H. & Clark, Ephraim & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2016. "On the Third Order Stochastic Dominance for Risk-Averse and Risk-Seeking Investors with Analysis of their Traditional and Internet Stocks," MPRA Paper 75002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Chan, Raymond H. & Chow, Sheung-Chi & Guo, Xu & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2022. "Central moments, stochastic dominance, moment rule, and diversification with an application," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    18. Kai-Yin Woo & Chulin Mai & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "Review on Efficiency and Anomalies in Stock Markets," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-51, March.
    19. Qiao, Zhuo & Wong, Wing-Keung & Fung, Joseph K.W., 2013. "Stochastic dominance relationships between stock and stock index futures markets: International evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 552-559.
    20. Hooi Lean & Kok Phoon & Wing-Keung Wong, 2013. "Stochastic dominance analysis of CTA funds," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 155-170, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stochastic dominance; stock index futures; risk preference; S-shape utility functions.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:74386. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.