A pseudo-Bayesian model in financial decision making with implications to market volatility, under- and overreaction
This paper develops a model of weight assignments using a pseudo-Bayesian approach that reflects investors' behavioral biases. In this parsimonious model of investor sentiment, weights induced by investors' conservative and representative heuristics are assigned to observations of the earning shocks of stock prices. Such weight assignments enable us to provide a quantitative link between some market anomalies and investors' behavioral biases. The seriousness of an anomaly can be quantitatively assessed by investigating into its dependency on weights. New results other than the short-run underreaction and long-run overreaction can be derived and new hypotheses can be formed.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Klein, April, 1990. "A direct test of the cognitive bias theory of share price reversals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 155-166, July.
- Friedman, Benjamin M., 1979. "Optimal expectations and the extreme information assumptions of `rational expectations' macromodels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 23-41, January.
- Josef Lakonishok & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1993.
"Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk,"
University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State
84, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- Abarbanell, Jeffrey S & Bernard, Victor L, 1992. " Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1181-207, July.
- David M. Grether, 1980. "Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 95(3), pages 537-557.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
- Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695, December.
- Blume, Lawrence E. & Easley, David, 1982. "Learning to be rational," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 340-351, April.
- Slovic, Paul, 1972. "Psychological Study of Human Judgment: Implications for Investment Decision-Making," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 779-99, September.
- Wing-keung Wong & Raymond Chan, 2004.
"On the estimation of cost of capital and its reliability,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 365-372.
- Wing-Keung Wong & Raymond H. Chan, 2004. "On the Estimation of Cost of Capital and its Reliability," Departmental Working Papers wp0401, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
- Nishihara, Michi & Fukushima, Masao, 2008. "Evaluation of firm's loss due to incomplete information in real investment decision," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 569-585, July.
- Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998.
"A model of investor sentiment,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
- De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
- Fong, Wai Mun & Wong, Wing Keung & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2005. "International momentum strategies: a stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 89-109, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:203:y:2010:i:1:p:166-175. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.