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A pseudo-Bayesian model in financial decision making with implications to market volatility, under- and overreaction

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  • Lam, Kin
  • Liu, Taisheng
  • Wong, Wing-Keung

Abstract

This paper develops a model of weight assignments using a pseudo-Bayesian approach that reflects investors' behavioral biases. In this parsimonious model of investor sentiment, weights induced by investors' conservative and representative heuristics are assigned to observations of the earning shocks of stock prices. Such weight assignments enable us to provide a quantitative link between some market anomalies and investors' behavioral biases. The seriousness of an anomaly can be quantitatively assessed by investigating into its dependency on weights. New results other than the short-run underreaction and long-run overreaction can be derived and new hypotheses can be formed.

Suggested Citation

  • Lam, Kin & Liu, Taisheng & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2010. "A pseudo-Bayesian model in financial decision making with implications to market volatility, under- and overreaction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 166-175, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:203:y:2010:i:1:p:166-175
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. GUORUI BIAN & MICHAEL McALEER & WING-KEUNG WONG, 2013. "Robust Estimation And Forecasting Of The Capital Asset Pricing Model," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., pages 1-18.
    2. Guo, Xu & Lam, Kin & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Lixing, 2012. "A New Pseudo-Bayesian Model of Investors' Behavior in Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 42535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Broll, Udo & Wong, Wing-Keung & Wu, Mojia, 2013. "Banking Firm and Two-Moment Decision Making," MPRA Paper 51687, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lam, Kin & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2016. "Stochastic Dominance and Investors’ Behavior towards Risk: The Hong Kong Stocks and Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 74386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bai, Zhidong & Li, Hua & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2013. "The best estimation for high-dimensional Markowitz mean-variance optimization," MPRA Paper 43862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:eee:ejores:v:261:y:2017:i:2:p:666-678 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:346-358 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2015. "Behavioural, Financial, and Health & Medical Economics: A Connection," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2015-14, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    9. Fathi Abid & Pui Lam Leung & Mourad Mroua & Wing Keung Wong, 2014. "International Diversification Versus Domestic Diversification: Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization and Stochastic Dominance Approaches," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(2), pages 1-22, May.
    10. Zhidong Bai & Hua Li & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2015. "Stochastic dominance statistics for risk averters and risk seekers: an analysis of stock preferences for USA and China," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 889-900, May.
    11. repec:wsi:afexxx:v:05:y:2009:i:01:n:s2010495209500055 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Guo, Xu & McAleer, Michael & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Lixing, 2017. "A Bayesian approach to excess volatility, short-term underreaction and long-term overreaction during financial crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 346-358.
    13. Pätäri, Eero & Leivo, Timo & Honkapuro, Samuli, 2012. "Enhancement of equity portfolio performance using data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(3), pages 786-797.
    14. Bai, Zhidong & Phoon, Kok Fai & Wang, Keyan & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2013. "The performance of commodity trading advisors: A mean-variance-ratio test approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 188-201.
    15. Eric S. Fung & Kin Lam & Tak-Kuen Siu & Wing-Keung Wong, 2011. "A Pseudo-Bayesian Model for Stock Returns In Financial Crises," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, December.
    16. Leung, Pui-Lam & Ng, Hon-Yip & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2012. "An improved estimation to make Markowitz’s portfolio optimization theory users friendly and estimation accurate with application on the US stock market investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 85-95.

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