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A New Pseudo-Bayesian Model of Investors' Behavior in Financial Crises

  • Guo, Xu
  • Lam, Kin
  • Wong, Wing-Keung
  • Zhu, Lixing

In this paper, we introduce a new pseudo-Bayesian model to incorporate the impact of a financial crisis and establish some properties of stock returns and investors' behavior during a financial crisis and subsequent recovery. Our approach provides a quantitative description for investors' representative and conservative heuristics by assuming that the earnings shock of an asset follows a modified random walk model to incorporate the impact of a financial crisis on the earnings of a firm. By using this model setup, we first establish some properties on the expected earnings shock and its volatility. Thereafter, we derive some properties of investors' behavior on the stock price and its volatility during a financial crisis and subsequent recovery. Last, we develop properties to explain some market anomalies, including short-term underreaction, long-term overreaction, and excess volatility during a financial crisis and subsequent recovery.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 42535.

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Date of creation: 31 Oct 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42535
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  1. Chenghu Ma & Wing-Keung Wong, 2013. "Stochastic Dominance and Risk Measure: A Decision-Theoretic Foundation for VaR and C-VaR," Papers 2013-10-14, Working Paper.
  2. Zhidong Bai & Hua Li & Huixia Liu & Wing‐Keung Wong, 2011. "Test statistics for prospect and Markowitz stochastic dominances with applications," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(2), pages 278-303, 07.
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  5. Zhuo Qiao & Ephraim Clark & Wing-Keung Wong, 2014. "Investors’ preference towards risk: evidence from the Taiwan stock and stock index futures markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 54(1), pages 251-274, 03.
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  7. Wong, Wing-Keung & Phoon, Kok Fai & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2008. "Stochastic dominance analysis of Asian hedge funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 204-223, June.
  8. Udo Broll & Jack E. Wahl & Wing-Keung Wong, 2005. "Elasticity of risk aversion and international trade," Departmental Working Papers wp0510, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
  9. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. Wong, Wing-Keung, 2007. "Stochastic dominance and mean-variance measures of profit and loss for business planning and investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 829-843, October.
  12. Alon Brav & J.B. Heaton, 2002. "Competing Theories of Financial Anomalies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 575-606, March.
  13. Wong, Wing-Keung & Li, Chi-Kwong, 1999. "A note on convex stochastic dominance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 293-300, March.
  14. Dominic Gasbarro & Wing-Keung Wong & J. Kenton Zumwalt, 2007. "Stochastic Dominance Analysis of iShares," Finance Working Papers 21919, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  15. Chan, Chia-Ying & de Peretti, Christian & Qiao, Zhuo & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2012. "Empirical test of the efficiency of the UK covered warrants market: Stochastic dominance and likelihood ratio test approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 162-174.
  16. Fong, Wai Mun & Wong, Wing Keung & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2005. "International momentum strategies: a stochastic dominance approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 89-109, February.
  17. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
  18. So, Mike K P & Lam, K & Li, W K, 1998. "A Stochastic Volatility Model with Markov Switching," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 244-53, April.
  19. Friedman, Benjamin M., 1979. "Optimal expectations and the extreme information assumptions of `rational expectations' macromodels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 23-41, January.
  20. Egozcue, Martin & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2010. "Gains from diversification on convex combinations: A majorization and stochastic dominance approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(3), pages 893-900, February.
  21. Wing-keung Wong & Raymond Chan, 2004. "On the estimation of cost of capital and its reliability," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 365-372.
  22. Blume, Lawrence E. & Easley, David, 1982. "Learning to be rational," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 340-351, April.
  23. Thierry Post, 2003. "Empirical Tests for Stochastic Dominance Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1905-1932, October.
  24. Slovic, Paul, 1972. "Psychological Study of Human Judgment: Implications for Investment Decision-Making," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 779-99, September.
  25. Egozcue, Martín & García, Luis Fuentes & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zitikis, Ricardas, 2011. "Do investors like to diversify? A study of Markowitz preferences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 188-193, November.
  26. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
  27. Lam, Kin & Liu, Taisheng & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2010. "A pseudo-Bayesian model in financial decision making with implications to market volatility, under- and overreaction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 166-175, May.
  28. Fong, Wai Mun & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Wong, Wing Keung, 2008. "Stochastic dominance and behavior towards risk: The market for Internet stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 194-208, October.
  29. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
  30. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
  31. Zhidong Bai & Yongchang Hui & Wing-Keung Wong & Ričardas Zitikis, 2012. "Prospect Performance Evaluation: Making a Case for a Non-asymptotic UMPU Test," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 10(4), pages 703-732, September.
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