IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Robust Estimation and Forecasting of the Capital Asset Pricing Model

Listed author(s):
  • Guorui Bian

    (Department of Statistics East China Normal University.)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, Department of Quantitative Economics, Complutense University of Madrid, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.)

  • Wing-Keung Wong

    (Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University.)

In this paper, we develop a modified maximum likelihood (MML) estimator for the multiple linear regression model with underlying student t distribution. We obtain the closed form of the estimators, derive the asymptotic properties, and demonstrate that the MML estimator is more appropriate for estimating the parameters of the Capital Asset Pricing Model by comparing its performance with least squares estimators (LSE) on the monthly returns of US portfolios. The empirical results reveal that the MML estimators are more efficient than LSE in terms of the relative efficiency of one-step-ahead forecast mean square error in small samples.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://eprints.ucm.es/15059/1/1209.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico in its series Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE with number 2012-09.

as
in new window

Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision: Apr 2012
Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1209
Note: The third author would like to thank Robert B. Miller and Howard E. Thompson for their continuous guidance and encouragement. For financial support, the first author is grateful to East China Normal University, the second author acknowledges the Australian Research Council, National Science Council, Taiwan, and the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, and the third author wishes to acknowledge Hong Kong Baptist University.
Contact details of provider: Phone: +34 913942604
Fax: 913942531
Web page: https://www.ucm.es/icae
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Postal: Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. Pabellón prefabricado, 1ª Planta, ala norte. Campus de Somosaguas, 28223 - POZUELO DE ALARCÓN (MADRID)
Web: https://www.ucm.es/fundamentos-analisis-economico2/documentos-de-trabajo-del-icae Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Wong, Wing-Keung & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "Mapping the Presidential Election Cycle in US stock markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(11), pages 3267-3277.
  2. Kon, Stanley J, 1984. " Models of Stock Returns-A Comparison," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 147-165, March.
  3. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-927, July.
  4. Wong, Wing-Keung & Bian, Guorui, 2005. "Estimating parameters in autoregressive models with asymmetric innovations," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 61-70, January.
  5. Wing-Keung Wong & Meher Manzur & Boon-Kiat Chew, 2003. "How rewarding is technical analysis? Evidence from Singapore stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 543-551.
  6. Qiao, Zhuo & McAleer, Michael & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2009. "Linear and nonlinear causality between changes in consumption and consumer attitudes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 161-164, March.
  7. Wing-keung Wong & Raymond Chan, 2004. "On the estimation of cost of capital and its reliability," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 365-372.
  8. Harvey, Campbell R. & Zhou, Guofu, 1993. "International asset pricing with alternative distributional specifications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 107-131, June.
  9. Thomas C. Chiang & Zhuo Qiao & Wing-Keung Wong, 2010. "New evidence on the relation between return volatility and trading volume," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 502-515.
  10. William F. Sharpe, 1963. "A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 277-293, January.
  11. Wong, Wing-Keung & Li, Chi-Kwong, 1999. "A note on convex stochastic dominance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 293-300, March.
  12. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1997. "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-355, September.
  13. James J. Kung & Wing-Keung Wong, 2009. "Efficiency Of The Taiwan Stock Market," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 389-394.
  14. Amemiya, Yasuo, 1985. "Instrumental variable estimator for the nonlinear errors-in-variables model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 273-289, June.
  15. Zhidong Bai & Yongchang Hui & Wing-Keung Wong & Ričardas Zitikis, 2012. "Prospect Performance Evaluation: Making a Case for a Non-asymptotic UMPU Test," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 10(4), pages 703-732, September.
  16. Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "Betas and Their Regression Tendencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 785-795, June.
  17. Broll, Udo & Wahl, Jack E. & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2006. "Elasticity of risk aversion and international trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 126-130, July.
  18. Qiao, Zhuo & Li, Yuming & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2008. "Policy change and lead-lag relations among China's segmented stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 276-289, July.
  19. Eugene F. Fama, 1965. "Portfolio Analysis in a Stable Paretian Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 11(3), pages 404-419, January.
  20. Blattberg, Robert C & Gonedes, Nicholas J, 1974. "A Comparison of the Stable and Student Distributions as Statistical Models for Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 244-280, April.
  21. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-1152, September.
  22. Egozcue, Martin & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2010. "Gains from diversification on convex combinations: A majorization and stochastic dominance approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(3), pages 893-900, February.
  23. Wing-Keung Wong & Boon-Kiat Chew & Douglas Sikorsk, 2001. "Can the Forecasts Generated from E/P Ratio and Bond Yield be Used to Beat Stock Markets?," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 5(1), pages 59-86, March.
  24. Fong, Wai Mun & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Wong, Wing Keung, 2008. "Stochastic dominance and behavior towards risk: The market for Internet stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 194-208, October.
  25. Dominic Gasbarro & Wing-Keung Wong & J. Kenton Zumwalt, 2007. "Stochastic Dominance Analysis of iShares," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 89-101.
  26. Lean, Hooi Hooi & McAleer, Michael & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2010. "Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 979-986, September.
  27. Wong, Wing-Keung, 2007. "Stochastic dominance and mean-variance measures of profit and loss for business planning and investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 829-843, October.
  28. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
  29. Wong, Wing-Keung & Phoon, Kok Fai & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2008. "Stochastic dominance analysis of Asian hedge funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 204-223, June.
  30. Hsiao, Cheng, 1989. "Consistent estimation for some nonlinear errors-in-variables models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 159-185, May.
  31. Ma, Chenghu & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2010. "Stochastic dominance and risk measure: A decision-theoretic foundation for VaR and C-VaR," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 927-935, December.
  32. Wing-Keung Wong & Chenghu Ma, 2005. "Preferences over Meyer’s Location-Scale Family," Departmental Working Papers wp0506, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
  33. Chan, Chia-Ying & de Peretti, Christian & Qiao, Zhuo & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2012. "Empirical test of the efficiency of the UK covered warrants market: Stochastic dominance and likelihood ratio test approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 162-174.
  34. Lam, Kin & Liu, Taisheng & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2010. "A pseudo-Bayesian model in financial decision making with implications to market volatility, under- and overreaction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 166-175, May.
  35. Eugene F. Fama, 1963. "Mandelbrot and the Stable Paretian Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 420-420.
  36. Pettit, R. Richardson & Westerfield, Randolph, 1974. "Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Market Model to Predict Security Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(04), pages 579-605, September.
  37. Wai Fong & Wing Wong, 2006. "The modified mixture of distributions model: a revisit," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 167-178, March.
  38. M. Qamarul Islam & Moti Tiku, 2010. "Multiple linear regression model with stochastic design variables," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 923-943.
  39. Qiao, Zhuo & Smyth, Russell & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2008. "Volatility switching and regime interdependence between information technology stocks 1995-2005," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 139-156.
  40. Honore, Bo E. & Hu, Luojia, 2004. "Estimation of cross sectional and panel data censored regression models with endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 293-316, October.
  41. Zhidong Bai & Hua Li & Huixia Liu & Wing‐Keung Wong, 2011. "Test statistics for prospect and Markowitz stochastic dominances with applications," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(2), pages 278-303, 07.
  42. Qiao, Zhuo & Chiang, Thomas C. & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2008. "Long-run equilibrium, short-term adjustment, and spillover effects across Chinese segmented stock markets and the Hong Kong stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 425-437, December.
  43. Dominic Gasbarro & Wing-Keung Wong & J. Kenton Zumwalt, 2012. "Stochastic Dominance And Behavior Towards Risk: The Market For Ishares," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(01), pages 1-20.
  44. Bai, Zhidong & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhang, Bingzhi, 2010. "Multivariate linear and nonlinear causality tests," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 5-17.
  45. Hausman, J. A. & Abrevaya, Jason & Scott-Morton, F. M., 1998. "Misclassification of the dependent variable in a discrete-response setting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 239-269, September.
  46. Li, Tong & Hsiao, Cheng, 2004. "Robust estimation of generalized linear models with measurement errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1-2), pages 51-65.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Águeda González Abad)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.