IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/mulfin/v18y2008i3p276-289.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Policy change and lead-lag relations among China's segmented stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Qiao, Zhuo
  • Li, Yuming
  • Wong, Wing-Keung

Abstract

This paper uses linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests to study the lead-lag relations among China's segmented stock markets. In contrast to the weak lead-lag relation among A- and B-share markets disclosed by its linear counterpart, a nonlinear causality test provides evidence of strong bi-directional causal relations between two A-share markets as well as between two B-share markets. In addition, the evidence shows that since the implementation of a new policy allowing domestic citizens to invest in B-share markets, A-share markets tend to lead their B-share counterparts in the same stock exchange and B-share markets continue to lead the H-share market.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiao, Zhuo & Li, Yuming & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2008. "Policy change and lead-lag relations among China's segmented stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 276-289, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:mulfin:v:18:y:2008:i:3:p:276-289
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042-444X(07)00057-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andre H. Gao & George H. K. Wang, 1999. "Modeling nonlinear dynamics of daily futures price changes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 325-351, May.
    2. Stulz, René M, 1995. "Foreign Equity Investment Restrictions, Capital Flight, and Shareholder Wealth Maximization," CEPR Discussion Papers 1208, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Ming-Shiun Pan & Kam C. Chan & David J. Wright, 2001. "Divergent Expectations And The Asian Financial Crisis Of 1997," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 219-238, June.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Brennan, Michael J & Cao, H Henry, 1997. " International Portfolio Investment Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1851-1880, December.
    6. Cheol S. Eun & Sanjiv Sabherwal, 2003. "Cross-Border Listings and Price Discovery: Evidence from U.S.-Listed Canadian Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 549-576, April.
    7. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205.
    8. Martin Laurence & Francis Cai & Sun Qian, 1997. "Weak-form Efficiency and Causality Tests in Chinese Stock Markets," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 1(4), pages 291-307, December.
    9. Froot, Kenneth A. & O'Connell, Paul G. J. & Seasholes, Mark S., 2001. "The portfolio flows of international investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 151-193, February.
    10. Mech, Timothy S., 1993. "Portfolio return autocorrelation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 307-344, December.
    11. Gary Gang Tian & Guang Hua Wan, 2004. "Interaction among China-related stocks: evidence from a causality test with a new procedure," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 67-72.
    12. Li, Yuming & Yan, Daying & Greco, Joe, 2006. "Market segmentation and price differentials between A shares and H shares in the Chinese stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, pages 232-248.
    13. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    14. Tarun Chordia & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2000. "Trading Volume and Cross-Autocorrelations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 913-935, April.
    15. Chakravarty, Sugato & Sarkar, Asani & Wu, Lifan, 1998. "Information asymmetry, market segmentation and the pricing of cross-listed shares: theory and evidence from Chinese A and B shares," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 325-356, December.
    16. Ma, Yue & Kanas, Angelos, 2000. "Testing for a nonlinear relationship among fundamentals and exchange rates in the ERM," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 135-152, February.
    17. Okunev, John & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2000. "The Causal Relationship between Real Estate and Stock Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 251-261, November.
    18. Jian Yang, 2003. "Market Segmentation and Information Asymmetry in Chinese Stock Markets: A VAR Analysis," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 591-609, November.
    19. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2006. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1647-1669.
    20. Pan, Ming-Shiun & Chan, Kam c & Wright, David J, 2001. "Divergent Expectations and the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 219-238, Summer.
    21. Kutan, Ali M. & Zhou, Haigang, 2006. "Determinants of returns and volatility of Chinese ADRs at NYSE," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, pages 1-15.
    22. Weigand, Robert A., 1996. "Trading volume and firm size: A test of the information spillover hypothesis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 47-58.
    23. Stulz, Rene M & Wasserfallen, Walter, 1995. "Foreign Equity Investment Restrictions, Capital Flight, and Shareholder Wealth Maximization: Theory and Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 1019-1057.
    24. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. " Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-1664, December.
    25. Sjoo, Boo & Zhang, Jianhua, 2000. "Market segmentation and information diffusion in China's stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, pages 421-438.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guorui Bian & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2013. "Robust Estimation and Forecasting of the Capital Asset Pricing Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-036/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Zhuo Qiao & Keith Lam, 2011. "Granger causal relations among Greater China stock markets: a nonlinear perspective," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 1437-1450.
    3. GUORUI BIAN & MICHAEL McALEER & WING-KEUNG WONG, 2013. "Robust Estimation And Forecasting Of The Capital Asset Pricing Model," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., pages 1-18.
    4. Weber, Enzo & Zhang, Yanqun, 2012. "Common influences, spillover and integration in Chinese stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 382-394.
    5. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The random walk hypothesis for Chinese stock markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests," Economic Systems, Elsevier, pages 117-126.
    6. Bai, Zhidong & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhang, Bingzhi, 2010. "Multivariate linear and nonlinear causality tests," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 5-17.
    7. Bai, Zhidong & Li, Heng & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhang, Bingzhi, 2011. "Multivariate causality tests with simulation and application," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, pages 1063-1071.
    8. Liu, Li & Wan, Jieqiu, 2012. "The relationships between Shanghai stock market and CNY/USD exchange rate: New evidence based on cross-correlation analysis, structural cointegration and nonlinear causality test," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(23), pages 6051-6059.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:mulfin:v:18:y:2008:i:3:p:276-289. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/mulfin .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.