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An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting

  • Clements, Michael P.
  • Hendry, David F.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 13 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 341-355

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:341-355
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  1. Hyllerberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal Integration And Cointegration," Papers 0-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  2. Paap, Richard & Franses, Philip Hans & Hoek, Henk, 1997. "Mean shifts, unit roots and forecasting seasonal time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 357-368, September.
  3. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  4. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  5. Fildes, Robert & Makridakis, Spyros, 1988. "Forecasting and loss functions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 545-550.
  6. Harvey, Andrew & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Seasonality in Dynamic Regression Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1324-45, November.
  7. Zellner, Arnold, 1986. "A tale of forecasting 1001 series : The Bayesian knight strikes again," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 491-494.
  8. Franses, Philip Hans, 1996. "Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774549.
  9. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
  10. Smith, Jeremy & Otero, Jesus, 1997. "Structural breaks and seasonal integration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 13-19, September.
  11. Nelson, Harold Jr. & Granger, C. W. J., 1979. "Experience with using the Box-Cox transformation when forecasting economic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 57-69, April.
  12. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Intercept Corrections and Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 475-94, Sept.-Oct.
  13. Hendry, David F, 1994. "HUS Revisited," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 86-106, Summer.
  14. Weiss, Andrew A, 1996. "Estimating Time Series Models Using the Relevant Cost Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 539-60, Sept.-Oct.
  15. Neil R. Ericsson, 1991. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: an exposition, extensions, and illustration," International Finance Discussion Papers 412, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Hylleberg, Svend & Jorgensen, Clara & Sorensen, Nils Karl, 1993. "Seasonality in Macroeconomic Time Series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 321-35.
  17. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Multi-Step Estimation for Forecasting," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 447, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  18. Osborn, Denise R., 1990. "A survey of seasonality in UK macroeconomic variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 327-336, October.
  19. Franses, Philip Hans, 1996. " Recent Advances in Modelling Seasonality," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 299-345, September.
  20. Weiss, Andrew A., 1991. "Multi-step estimation and forecasting in dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 135-149.
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