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Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures

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This paper examines risk-averse and risk-seeking investor preferences for oil spot and futures prices by using the mean-variance (MV) criterion and stochastic dominance (SD) approach. The MV findings cannot distinguish between the preferences of spot and futures markets. However, the SD tests show that spot dominates futures in the downside risk, while futures dominate spot in the upside profit. On the other hand, the SD findings suggest that spot dominates futures in downside risk, while futures dominate spot in upside profit. Risk-averse investors prefer investing in the spot index. Risk seekers are attracted to the futures index to maximize their expected utility but not expected wealth in the entire period, as well as for both the OPEC and Iraq War sub-periods. The SD findings show that there is no arbitrage opportunity between the spot and futures markets, and these markets are not rejected as being efficient.

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  • Hooi Hooi Lean & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2013. "Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures," Working Papers in Economics 13/30, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:13/30
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic dominance; mean-variance; risk averter; risk seeker; futures market; spot market.;
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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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