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Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures based on Mean-Variance and Stochastic Dominance

Author

Listed:
  • Hooi Hooi Lean

    (School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)

  • Wing-Keung Wong

    (Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University)

Abstract

This paper examines investor preferences for oil spot and futures based on mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD). The mean-variance criterion cannot distinct the preferences of spot and market whereas SD tests leads to the conclusion that spot dominates futures in the downside risk while futures dominate spot in the upside profit. It is also found that risk-averse investors prefer investing in the spot index, whereas risk seekers are attracted to the futures index to maximize their expected utilities. In addition, the SD results suggest that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets. Market efficiency and market rationality are likely to hold in the oil spot and futures markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Hooi Hooi Lean & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2011. "Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures based on Mean-Variance and Stochastic Dominance," KIER Working Papers 755, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:755
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    2. Broll, Udo & Wong, Wing-Keung & Wu, Mojia, 2013. "Banking Firm and Two-Moment Decision Making," MPRA Paper 51687, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hooi Hooi Lean & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2013. "Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-31, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, revised Aug 2013.
    4. Zhidong Bai & Hua Li & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2015. "Stochastic dominance statistics for risk averters and risk seekers: an analysis of stock preferences for USA and China," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 889-900, May.
    5. Nidhi Choudhary & Girish K. Nair & Harsh Purohit, 2015. "Volatility In Copper Prices In India," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-26, December.
    6. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2014. "Commodity futures and market efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 50-57.
    7. Onder Buberkoku, 2017. "Examining Energy Futures Market Efficiency Under Multiple Regime Shifts," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(6), pages 61-71.

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    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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