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Futures trading, spot market volatility, and market efficiency: The case of the Korean index futures markets

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  • Sung C. Bae
  • Taek Ho Kwon
  • Jong Won Park

Abstract

We examine the effect of the introduction of index futures trading in the Korean markets on spot price volatility and market efficiency of the underlying KOSPI 200 stocks, relative to the carefully matched non‐KOSPI 200 stocks. Employing both an event study approach and a matching‐sample approach for the market data during the period of January 1990–December 1998, we find that the introduction of KOSPI 200 index futures trading is associated with greater market efficiency but, at the same time, greater spot price volatility in the underlying stock market. We also find that KOSPI 200 stocks experience lower spot price volatility and higher trading efficiency than non‐KOSPI 200 stocks after the introduction of futures trading. The trading efficiency gap between the two groups of stocks, however, declines over time and vanishes following the addition of options trading. Overall, our results suggest that while futures trading in Korea increases spot price volatility and market efficiency, there exists volatility spillover to stocks against which futures are not traded. We provide several factors unique in the Korean markets including circuit breakers, sidercar system, restrictions on foreign ownership, and inactive program trading as potential factors to explain some of our puzzling evidence. We further consider the potential effect of changes in daily price limits utilized by the Korea Stock Exchange during the testing period on our empirical findings. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:1195–1228, 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Sung C. Bae & Taek Ho Kwon & Jong Won Park, 2004. "Futures trading, spot market volatility, and market efficiency: The case of the Korean index futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(12), pages 1195-1228, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:24:y:2004:i:12:p:1195-1228
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    1. Dar-Hsin Chen & Po-Hsun Chang, 2008. "The impact of listing stock options on the underlying securities: the case of Taiwan," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(14), pages 1161-1172.
    2. Sila Alan, Nazli & Karagozoglu, Ahmet K. & Korkmaz, Sibel, 2016. "Growing pains: The evolution of new stock index futures in emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-16.
    3. Jinyu Liu & Rui Zhong, 2018. "Equity index futures trading and stock price crash risk: Evidence from Chinese markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(11), pages 1313-1333, November.
    4. Lam, Kin & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2016. "Stochastic Dominance and Investors’ Behavior towards Risk: The Hong Kong Stocks and Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 74386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Alexandridis, G. & Sahoo, S. & Visvikis, I., 2017. "Economic information transmissions and liquidity between shipping markets: New evidence from freight derivatives," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 82-104.
    6. Wu, Ming & Ohk, Ki Yool, 2023. "Who benefits more? Shanghai-Hong Kong stock Connect—“Through Train”," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 409-427.
    7. Thi Kim Nguyen & Muhammad Najib Razali, 2020. "The dynamics of listed property companies in Indonesia," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(2), pages 91-106, January.
    8. Liang, Chao & Ma, Feng & Li, Ziyang & Li, Yan, 2020. "Which types of commodity price information are more useful for predicting US stock market volatility?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 642-650.
    9. Loc Dong Truong & Anh Thi Kim Nguyen & Dut Van Vo, 2021. "Index Future Trading and Spot Market Volatility in Frontier Markets: Evidence from Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(3), pages 353-366, September.
    10. Shailesh Rastogi & Chaitaly Athaley, 2019. "Volatility Integration in Spot, Futures and Options Markets: A Regulatory Perspective," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, June.
    11. Kwangwon Ahn & Yingyao Bi & Sungbin Sohn, 2019. "Price discovery among SSE 50 Index‐based spot, futures, and options markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 238-259, February.
    12. Atilgan, Yigit & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Simsek, Koray D., 2016. "Derivative markets in emerging economies: A survey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-102.
    13. George Filis & Christos Floros & Bruno Eeckels, 2011. "Option listing, returns and volatility: evidence from Greece," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(19), pages 1423-1435.
    14. Jian, Zhihong & Wu, Shuai & Zhu, Zhican, 2018. "Asymmetric extreme risk spillovers between the Chinese stock market and index futures market: An MV-CAViaR based intraday CoVaR approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 98-113.
    15. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2022. "Effect of futures trading on the liquidity of underlying stocks: Evidence from Vietnam," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    16. S. Bhaumik & M. Karanasos & A. Kartsaklas, 2008. "Derivatives Trading and the Volume-Volatility Link in the Indian Stock Market," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp935, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    17. Da Dong & Qingfu Liu & Pingping Tao & Zhiliang Ying, 2021. "The pricing mechanism between ETF option and spot markets in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1286-1300, August.
    18. Liu, Shengnan & Yang, Linshan & Gu, Rongbao, 2023. "Can the introduction of stock index futures stabilize the volatility of the stock market? Evidence from the Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 44-58.
    19. Liu, Guangqiang & Guo, Xiaozhu, 2022. "Forecasting stock market volatility using commodity futures volatility information," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    20. Han, Qian & Zhao, Chengzhi & Chen, Jing & Guo, Qian, 2022. "Reexamining the impact of closing call auction on market quality: A natural experiment from the Shanghai stock exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    21. Kutan, Ali M. & Shi, Yukun & Wei, Mingzhe & Zhao, Yang, 2018. "Does the introduction of index futures stabilize stock markets? Further evidence from emerging markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 183-197.
    22. Chaudhry, Neeru & Gupta, Aastha, 2023. "Do derivatives benefit shareholders? Evidence from India," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    23. Shimeng Shi & Yukun Shi, 2021. "Bitcoin futures: trade it or ban it?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4-5), pages 381-396, March.
    24. Sui, Cong & Lung, Peter & Yang, Mo, 2021. "Index option trading and equity volatility: Evidence from the SSE 50 and CSI 500 stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 60-75.
    25. Bhaumik, S. & Karanasos, M. & Kartsaklas, A., 2016. "The informative role of trading volume in an expanding spot and futures market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 24-40.

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